Chicago Fire
New England Revolution| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H46%D26%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H44%D28%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H47%D26%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H46%D25%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H44%D29%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H50%D22%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H49%D25%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H41%D26%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H37%D29%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H42%D31%A27% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Chicago have a game in hand, a better goal difference and one of the league's most productive attacks at home in Cuypers and Zinckernagel, while New England's strength is a disciplined defense that travels reasonably well. Expect a tight six-pointer with a narrow Fire edge and a real chance of a level scoreline.
Chicago's home strength and Robert Lewandowski's scoring form give them a narrow edge, but New England's in-form road attack and Chicago's run of draws make this very tight, with both sides likely to score.
Chicago Fire boast a superior points-per-game record and a potent attack led by Hugo Cuypers, giving them the edge on home turf against a closely matched New England side.
Chicago's home advantage and Cuypers-led attack (1.88 GF/game) give them a slight edge over a defensively similar New England side in a six-pointer for Eastern top-four, with both teams conceding ~1.3 per game pointing to a narrow 2-1.
Chicago have home advantage and a slightly superior per-game record (1.71 vs 1.58 ppg) with games in hand, plus the league's joint-top scorer in Cuypers (13 goals) and Zinckernagel (7 assists) driving their attack, while New England's strength is mid-table solidity on the road with Gil pulling strings. Expect a tight contest typical of this rivalry, with Chicago's defensive record (1.35 GA/game) edging it.
Both teams are closely matched in the standings and form, with key absences for Chicago (Gimenez, Omsberg, Mueller, Poreba) and New England's reliance on Carles Gil. Defensive solidity for both sides (Chicago's shutouts, New England's organized backline) suggests a tightly contested draw is highly probable.
Chicago has the stronger underlying profile — better points per game (1.71 vs 1.58), a superior goal difference per game (+0.53 vs +0.21) and a meaner defense — plus home advantage and a 13-goal striker in Cuypers, making them modest favorites despite trailing New England by one point. Both sides draw far less often than league average (Chicago 2 draws in 17, Revs 3 in 19), so the draw is shaded slightly below the ~24% baseline while still given honest weight.
Chicago Fire's superior goal difference (+9 vs +4) and Hugo Cuypers' league-leading 13 goals give them a slight home edge, but New England's stingy defense (1.32 GA/game) and Carles Gil's playmaking keep the draw probability high.
Chicago have the stronger scoring and defensive rates while playing two fewer matches, and home advantage further tilts this close matchup their way. New England remain competitive enough to keep the draw and away-win probabilities meaningful.
Chicago Fire holds a slight edge at home with a superior attack (32 GF in 17 games, ~1.88/g) and tighter defense (23 GA) compared to New England's 1.53 goals/game. As a six-pointer between 3rd and 4th, both sides are motivated, but Chicago's home advantage and better underlying numbers make them narrow favorites in what should be a competitive, low-scoring affair.
Chicago sit just behind New England on points with two games in hand and a superior goal difference plus home advantage; Cuypers' scoring form edges a tight Eastern Conference clash that both sides need, though draws remain frequent in MLS.
Chicago's four consecutive MLS draws and strong 7-3-1 home record point toward a stalemate, with Lewandowski and Carles Gil both in red-hot scoring form likely to trade goals in a tightly contested six-pointer.
Chicago is unbeaten in seven MLS matches but has drawn four straight, while New England arrives with three wins in their last five including strong road results at NYCFC and Columbus. Chicago's home advantage and superior H2H record are offset by their draw tendency and the Revs' improved away form, making a tight 1-1 the most likely scoreline.
Chicago FireNew England Revolution