Austin
San Jose Earthquakes| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D27%A39% | Missed | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H43%D28%A29% | Missed | Exact |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Missed | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H32%D31%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H31%D26%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H31%D27%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H37%D29%A34% | Missed | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D26%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H40%D26%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
San Jose are the stronger side on the season table but are in poor post-break form and winless in recent outings, while Austin have found some momentum at home despite a weak overall record; Q2 Stadium plus the Quakes' leaky defense points to a tight, low-scoring game with a high draw chance.
Austin carry home momentum and have won the last two meetings at Q2, while San Jose are winless in seven and depleted; San Jose's stronger overall record and Austin's modest attack keep a draw/away result live.
San Jose Earthquakes sit fourth in the conference but enter in poor form and searching for momentum, while Austin FC have improved at home to make this a tightly contested match.
Despite San Jose's top-4 table position, their winless run since the World Cup break contrasts with Austin's momentum at Q2 Stadium, making the hosts slight favourites in a tight game where both attacks find the net.
San Jose are a clearly superior side on the season (10-3-6, 38 GF, Judd on 11 goals) and have the firepower to exploit Austin's porous defense (36 GA, second-worst in the West), but research notes flag a sharp post-World Cup break slump (winless streak) and a road trip to Q2, while Austin 'carry momentum' and are 'suddenly dangerous.' That tension—quality vs. form, away side vs. home upswing—favors a narrow San Jose win in a tight, low-scoring game, with the draw a very live secondary outcome.
Austin FC enters this match with momentum and home advantage, while San Jose Earthquakes are struggling for form and have defensive vulnerabilities. However, San Jose's attacking potential and Austin's occasional defensive lapses justify a significant draw probability.
San Jose are clearly the stronger side over the season (4th in the West, +11 GD, 38 goals led by Judd) against an Austin team that has conceded 36 in 18 games, so the Earthquakes' attack should exploit that leaky defense. However, San Jose are winless since the World Cup break while Austin carry momentum and home advantage at Q2 Stadium, which keeps the away win short of a coin flip and leaves a draw very live.
San Jose's superior season-long metrics (4th vs 14th, +11 GD vs -14) favor them, but their winless run since the World Cup break and defensive frailties, combined with Austin's home momentum, narrow the gap and raise draw probability.
San Jose’s stronger attack and markedly better season-long performance give them the edge, despite their recent downturn. Austin’s home advantage and reported momentum keep the draw and home-win chances significant.
San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in the West with strong underlying numbers (38 GF, +11 GD) but are in drastically worse form, seeking their first win since the World Cup break. Austin FC (14th, 17 pts) is described as 'suddenly dangerous' with home momentum at Q2 Stadium, though their attack has been anemic all season (22 GF in 18 games). The clash of San Jose's superior quality against their poor recent form and Austin's home advantage but weak overall record points to a tight, low-scoring affair where a draw is highly plausible.
San Jose sit 4th with a strong +11 GD and superior attack while Austin languish 14th with the West's second-worst defense; even allowing for Austin's home venue and SJ's reported recent dip, the Earthquakes' quality edge makes an away win the most likely 90-minute result.
San Jose's catastrophic post-World Cup collapse—eight straight MLS matches without a win, four consecutive losses, and 3.0 goals conceded per match over their last six—makes them vulnerable despite their superior table position, while Austin have gathered momentum with recent home results and benefit from Q2 Stadium support against a shell-shocked defense.
San Jose sit 4th but are in freefall with zero wins and just two points from their last seven MLS matches, while Austin carry momentum from back-to-back wins including a road victory at Portland, and have won their last two home meetings against the Earthquakes.
AustinSan Jose Earthquakes