Austin
FC Dallas| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H36%D28%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H29%D27%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H22%D27%A51% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H31%D26%A43% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H34%D30%A36% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H35%D29%A36% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H32%D27%A41% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D30%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H32%D26%A42% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H30%D26%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H30%D25%A45% | Correct | Exact |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
An in-state rivalry between an in-form home Austin side (unbeaten last five, strong at protecting leads) and a stronger-on-paper Dallas team with dangerous scorer Musa; Austin's late-game defensive lapses and Dallas's road inconsistency point to a tight, evenly-matched contest.
FC Dallas are the clearly better side this season (stronger attack, positive goal difference, comfortably more points), while Austin have the league's leakiest defence outside the bottom club and score sparingly at 1.2 per game. Home advantage in this in-state derby and Austin's improved form under Arnaud with Uzuni firing keeps it close, so a tight low-scoring game with a real chance of a draw is the likeliest shape.
FC Dallas sit 10 points clear of second-bottom Austin and boast a far superior attack led by joint-top scorer Musa (13 goals), while Austin concede 2.0 goals per game and have been wasteful in front of goal; though Austin's Leagues Cup quarterfinal run and strong historical H2H at Q2 Stadium keep the draw probability honest.
FC Dallas has been significantly better in league play, boasting a strong attack led by Petar Musa, while Austin has struggled defensively this season. Despite Austin's recent Leagues Cup momentum and home advantage, Dallas's superior quality and goal-scoring ability make them slight favorites to take the points.
While FC Dallas has enjoyed a much stronger MLS campaign so far, Austin FC enters this Texas Derby with renewed confidence following a strong Leagues Cup run. With home-field advantage at Q2 Stadium and Myrto Uzuni in fine form, Austin should be able to secure a hard-fought draw against their in-state rivals.
Although Austin FC enjoys home advantage at Q2 Stadium for this Texas derby, FC Dallas enters in superior overall form with a vastly superior goal differential (+7 vs -14) and top scorer Petar Musa in fine form. The home crowd and rivalry intensity should help Austin bridge the quality gap, making a hard-fought draw the most realistic result.
Austin FC has a strong historical record in this rivalry and home advantage, but FC Dallas is higher in the standings and possesses one of the league's top scorers in P. Musa. Given Austin's tendency to be wasteful in front of goal and Dallas's mixed defensive form, a closely contested draw is a highly probable outcome.
Dallas bring the better overall profile (+7 GD vs -14, Musa joint-top on 13 goals) against Austin's leaky defence (36 conceded) and wasteful attack, but Austin's home advantage at Q2, Uzuni's recent form (6G 5A) and strong historical edge in this derby (5W 2D 3L) keep it close.
Texas derby with FC Dallas clearly the stronger side this season (7th vs 14th in the West, 27pts vs 17pts, 32 GF vs 22 GF), but Austin is at home, historically strong in this fixture (W5 D2 L3 per Sports Mole), and has found rhythm under new coach Arnaud, while Dallas's defensive record (1.39 GA/match) and Musa-led attack keep them slight favorites in a tight, derby-style contest likely to be decided by fine margins.
Both teams are closely matched in form and motivation, with Austin's recent attacking rhythm (Uzuni's form) balanced by Dallas' defensive solidity and wastefulness in front of goal. The draw is a genuine possibility given their historical parity and current tactical setups.
FC Dallas carries a significantly stronger league record and the competition's joint-top scorer in Petar Musa, but Austin's historical edge in this rivalry and home support at Q2 Stadium should keep the contest tight; Dallas' superior overall quality is likely to secure a narrow away victory.
FC Dallas are the clearly stronger side this season (27 pts, +7 GD vs Austin's 17 pts, -14 GD) with Petar Musa (13 goals) leading a productive attack against an Austin defense conceding 2.0 goals per game. However, Austin's home advantage, their historical edge in this rivalry (5W-2D-3L), and Uzuni's strong recent form keep the hosts competitive, so an away win is favored but far from certain.
FC Dallas holds a clear edge in league form (7th vs 14th, GD +7 vs -14) and attacking firepower (Musa 13 goals vs Uzuni 6), but Austin's home advantage, historical H2H dominance (5W-2D-3L), and Uzuni's Leagues Cup hot streak make a tight contest likely.
Dallas have been substantially stronger at both ends this season, with Musa offering a major scoring threat, but Austin's home advantage and Uzuni's improved influence make this competitive. Dallas are likelier to win overall, although 1-1 is the most plausible individual scoreline.
FC Dallas enters as the stronger side this season (27 pts, +7 GD, league-top scorer Musa with 13 goals) versus a struggling Austin (17 pts, -14 GD), but Austin's home advantage at Q2 Stadium, historical edge in this Copa Tejas rivalry (5-2-3), and Uzuni's recent upturn in form keep the match competitive. Dallas's backline has shown vulnerability in stretches, and Austin's tendency to protect leads once scoring first suggests a tight, low-scoring affair where a draw is a highly plausible outcome.
Dallas sit well clear in the table with superior attack (Musa leading the line) and defense, while Austin's poor GD and low points total make them vulnerable even at home; expect the visitors to edge a tight rivalry match.
FC Dallas are the significantly stronger side this season (27 pts vs 17 pts, +7 GD vs -14 GD) with Musa tied for the league scoring lead at 13 goals; however, Austin's home advantage in a rivalry match and Uzuni's improving form under interim management make this competitive, giving Austin a real chance to take points but Dallas the edge.
FC Dallas sit 10 points clear of Austin with a far superior goal difference (+7 vs -14) and boast the league's joint-top scorer in Musa (13 goals), making them the stronger side despite Austin's home advantage and historical edge in this Texas derby. Austin's Leagues Cup quarterfinal run and Uzuni's improved form could keep it close, but Dallas's greater overall quality should edge it.
AustinFC Dallas