Atlanta United FC
New York City FC| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H29%D26%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H34%D30%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H31%D27%A42% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H22%D28%A50% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H25%D30%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H29%D25%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 0–1 | H28%D26%A46% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–0 | H42%D30%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H25%D27%A48% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H36%D30%A34% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Atlanta are the East's weakest side with a badly negative goal difference and little attacking output, while NYCFC are comfortably in the playoff mix with the better defensive record and a prolific scorer in Fernández Mercau. Mercedes-Benz Stadium keeps Atlanta live, but the visitors are the more likely winners in a modest-scoring game.
NYCFC have been the stronger side over the season and retain the more dangerous scorer, while Atlanta are bottom and missing key defenders/creators; however, both teams are depleted and low on form, making a tight 1-1 the most likely exact score.
Atlanta United has endured a difficult campaign sitting bottom of the Eastern Conference with 12 losses in 19 games, while NYCFC boasts one of the league's top scorers in Nicolás Fernández Mercau and greater overall stability.
NYCFC are significantly stronger on season form (26pts, +7 GD in 18 games vs Atlanta's 15pts, -13 GD in 19) and carry the better attack, making them favourites even away, though Atlanta's exclusive home-win pattern and home advantage keeps it close.
Atlanta United are one of MLS's worst sides this season (4W-3D-12L, -13 GD, only 15 pts) while New York City FC are firmly in playoff contention with +7 GD and 26 pts; NYCFC also beat Atlanta midweek via Tajouri-Shradi and have a golden-boot-chasing striker in Fernández Mercau (13 goals), giving the visitors a clear edge despite Atlanta's home advantage.
Atlanta United FC shows strong home form and attacking improvements with key players like Thiaré and Saba, but NYCFC's resilience and recent away clean sheets at Citi Field suggest a tightly contested match. The draw is a significant possibility, but Atlanta's home advantage and goal-scoring potential edge them slightly ahead.
Atlanta sits bottom of the East with just 4 wins and a -13 goal difference, while NYCFC (7th, +7 GD) is more productive in attack and far more solid defensively, making the visitors slight favorites despite the trip. MLS home advantage and Atlanta's tendency to pick up its rare wins at Mercedes-Benz Stadium keep the home win and draw live, with NYCFC's firepower (Fernández Mercau's 13 goals) tipping a tight match toward an away win.
NYCFC sits 11 points and 11 places above Atlanta in the Eastern Conference with superior attack (1.7 vs 1.1 GF/game) and defense (1.3 vs 1.8 GA/game); Atlanta's only 4 wins all came at home but their overall home record remains poor, making the visitors narrow favorites with the draw a strong secondary outcome.
NYCFC have been substantially stronger at both ends, while Atlanta have lost 12 of 19 and scored only 21 goals. Atlanta's home advantage keeps the draw and upset chances meaningful, but NYCFC's superior attack should prevail.
Atlanta United sits dead last in the East with just 15 points from 19 games and the league's weakest attack (21 GF), while NYCFC is a solid mid-table side (26 pts, +7 GD) with the joint-top scorer in Fernández Mercau (13 goals) and a stingy defense (24 GA in 18). Although Atlanta has collected most of their wins at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, NYCFC's superior quality on both sides of the ball makes them clear favorites even on the road.
Atlanta host a heavily depleted NYCFC missing ~10 players to injury and internationals (including Freese, Moralez, Magno, Parks, Gray), while Atlanta are fully fit and coming off a 1-0 win; both sides average low output recently so a narrow home win edges the draw.
Atlanta United's league-worst record and poor home form (4W-1D-6L) make them heavy underdogs despite home advantage, while NYCFC boast a significantly superior squad anchored by MLS joint-top scorer Fernández Mercau (13 goals) and a +7 goal difference versus Atlanta's -13.
NYCFC's superior squad quality is undermined by catastrophic form (1 win in 9) and six key injuries, while Atlanta enters with momentum from a road win at Portland and no availability concerns. Both sides struggle offensively, making a low-scoring draw the most likely scoreline, though Atlanta's home advantage under Martino gives them a slight edge in the result probabilities.
Atlanta United FCNew York City FC