Atlanta United FC
Charlotte| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H34%D27%A39% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H33%D28%A39% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H34%D26%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H30%D30%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H37%D28%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H28%D28%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H34%D26%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H27%D26%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H39%D27%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Charlotte are the stronger, more consistent side on the season (positive goal difference, mid-table East) while Atlanta have the league's weakest attack, but Atlanta have reportedly hit a run of form and get home advantage in a rivalry fixture, which flattens the gap and raises draw equity.
Charlotte enters the regional rivalry in significantly stronger form and league position, though Atlanta's home advantage should keep the contest tight.
Atlanta United enters this match on a three-game winning streak and possesses home advantage, though they sit lower in the standings. Charlotte is more consistent overall this season, but Atlanta's current momentum and attacking shifts make them slight favorites.
Atlanta are bottom of the East but at home on a three-game win streak, lifting them above season averages; Charlotte's far superior season body of work (+4 GD vs -13, 28pts vs 15pts) and disciplined defensive shape still makes them narrow favourites in a tight game.
Charlotte is the clearly superior side on season-long metrics (28 pts vs 15, +4 GD vs -13) and should be favored even away, but Atlanta's reported three-game winning streak and home advantage narrow the gap significantly, making a draw a realistic single most likely scoreline while Charlotte remains the slight favorite to win outright.
Charlotte's overall body of work is clearly stronger (5th vs 15th in the East, far better defensive record), but Atlanta reportedly carries a three-game win streak into this fixture and has home advantage, which largely neutralizes the quality gap. With both sides projecting around 1.3-1.5 expected goals, this profiles as a tight, low-margin match where the draw is a genuinely live outcome.
Charlotte's substantially better league position (5th vs 15th), positive goal difference (+4 vs -13), and stronger attack outweigh Atlanta's home advantage; Atlanta's reported win streak and midfield improvement make a competitive match likely but not enough to overcome the quality gap.
Charlotte have been substantially stronger at both ends over the season, giving them a narrow edge despite playing away. Atlanta's home advantage and reported three-match winning run keep the upset and draw probabilities significant.
Charlotte sits 5th in the East with a +4 GD and a disciplined defensive structure anchored by Westwood, while Atlanta languishes 15th with the conference's worst attack (21 GF in 19 games). Although Atlanta enters on a three-game win streak and has home advantage, their season-long deficiencies in chance creation make Charlotte the clear quality favorite, with a narrow away win the most likely outcome.
Atlanta ride a three-match winning streak with consecutive 2-1 results and home momentum under Martino, while Charlotte sit higher in the table with superior overall quality and attack but only modest away returns; the recent 2-2 H2H and both sides' scoring form point to a narrow home win as the modal outcome.
Charlotte sits 5th in the East with a much stronger overall record and superior goal-scoring, but Atlanta is on a three-match MLS win streak and is unbeaten in both prior meetings with Charlotte this season (2-0 W, 2-2 D), making this closer than the table suggests—Charlotte's quality edge and away resilience should ultimately prevail in a tight contest.
Atlanta is on a surprising three-game MLS win streak (all 2-1) under Martino and hosts a rivalry match where they've historically performed well, including a 2-0 Open Cup win over Charlotte in April. However, Charlotte sits 13 points higher in the table with a far superior goal difference and has won three of their last five, making them the stronger side overall. The previous MLS meeting this season ended 2-2, suggesting these teams are closely matched.
