Toulouse
Lyon| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H25%D27%A48% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–2 | H25%D28%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H38%D27%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H36%D29%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–2 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H31%D27%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Lyon are further into their competitive rhythm (Champions League qualifiers) and have stronger squad quality, while Toulouse begin a rebuild under a new coach with suspensions in defence; however, Toulouse have won both recent home meetings 2-1 and both teams have scored in the last 10 H2H, keeping a draw and an away edge realistic.
Lyon carry a stronger squad and were in strong form at the end of last season, though a midweek European tie at Fenerbahçe and a recent 2-1 loss at the Stadium de Toulouse temper their edge; Toulouse are solid at home, so a tight, low-scoring game with a slight Lyon advantage is likeliest.
Lyon have the stronger squad and are already battle-tested, but Toulouse's strong opening-day record and home edge, plus Lyon's possible Champions League rotation, keep it close. Both teams have scored in the last 10 meetings at Toulouse, so a narrow away win is the likeliest outcome.
Although Toulouse completed a rare league double over Lyon last season, the visitors boast a formidable attacking lineup featuring Lois Openda and Ernest Nuamah. With both teams starting fresh on Matchday 1, Lyon's superior squad depth and quality should help them avenge last season's defeats and edge a tight contest.
Lyon enter the opening weekend with superior overall quality and added match sharpness following competitive European qualifiers. Toulouse are adjusting to new manager Jens Askou while dealing with squad rebuilding and key suspensions, giving the visitors a clear advantage.
Lyon boast greater attacking quality across their squad and will look to avenge last season's late defeat in Toulouse, though the hosts should keep it competitive on opening day.
Lyon enters the season in strong form with a high-quality attacking lineup featuring Lois Openda. While Toulouse won the previous meeting, Lyon's overall squad depth and recent momentum make them the favorites.
Toulouse completed a league double over Lyon last season including a 2-1 win at the Stadium de Toulouse where Lyon won just 1 of their final 6 away, and Lyon face a 4-day turnaround after the 18 Aug Fenerbahçe tie with several new starters still gelling, giving the fresher home side a narrow edge despite Lyon's superior squad quality.
Opening matchday with no current-season form data; Lyon's superior squad (Openda, Fofana, Nuamah) is offset by their historically poor away form at the Stadium de Toulouse (1W in last 6 away) and Toulouse's recent home dominance in this fixture, including a 2-1 win in the previous meeting. A tight 1-1 draw is the modal scoreline, though both wins are nearly as likely.
Lyon's recent strong form, attacking quality, and historical dominance over Toulouse—despite Toulouse's home advantage—make them slight favorites. However, Toulouse's resilience at home and Lyon's inconsistent away form in the previous season suggest a tightly contested match with a significant chance of a draw.
Lyon are without their entire first-choice defence and face a quick turnaround from a European trip, but their potent attack and three competitive matches already played give them the edge in an open game where both sides should find the net.
Lyon field the stronger squad on paper (Openda, Nuamah, Fofana, Tolisso, Tessmann) and historically dominated this matchup (unbeaten in 18 meetings before last season), making them slight favourites even away. However, Toulouse won this exact fixture 2-1 in May and Lyon's away form collapsed late last season (one win in their final six on the road), so a season-opener draw or home upset is very live.
Lyon have superior squad depth and historical dominance (unbeaten in 18 prior meetings before last season's double), but their poor away form late last season and Toulouse's home win in that fixture suggest a tight opener; slight edge to the visitors on quality.
Lyon's stronger attacking lineup gives them a modest edge, although their late-season away struggles and Toulouse's league double over them last term keep the home and draw chances significant.
Lyon enter the season opener in red-hot form with four straight wins to end last campaign and a significantly upgraded squad featuring Lois Openda, but Toulouse claimed a 2-1 home victory over them last season and Lyon's late away form was shaky. Lyon's superior attacking quality should edge a tight contest, though Toulouse's home advantage keeps it competitive.
Lyon enter as the stronger side with superior squad quality and attacking options like Openda and Fofana, historically dominating this fixture despite Toulouse's rare home win last season; early-season openness and Toulouse's home edge keep the draw and home win viable but secondary.
Lyon enter on a four-match winning streak with superior squad quality (Openda, Fofana, Nuamah) and have historically dominated this fixture (18-game unbeaten run before last season), while Toulouse's home form was poor (one win in six). However, Toulouse did complete the double over Lyon last season, keeping this closer than the quality gap might suggest.
Lyon's superior squad quality and competitive match fitness — already three CL qualifiers under their belt — give them the edge over a Toulouse side in transition under new manager Askou with key suspensions and squad turnover. However, Lyon's potential rotation with a Champions League playoff return leg four days later, combined with Toulouse's strong season-opener record at home, keeps this narrower than the talent gap suggests.
ToulouseLyon