Monaco
Marseille| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H36%D26%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H44%D26%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H48%D26%A26% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H45%D26%A29% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H40%D25%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H45%D27%A28% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Both sides won their openers (Marseille emphatically 4-0 over Strasbourg) and are close in quality: OM have the deeper, more potent attack with Gouiri in form, but Monaco have won their last three home league meetings with Marseille and Stade Louis-II is a tough trip, with Paixao and Aguerd doubtful for the visitors. That leaves an almost even contest with a high draw share.
Monaco's strong home record in this fixture and solid start give them a narrow edge, but Marseille arrive rested and sharp after a 4-0 opener. A tight, high-level contest makes 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.
Monaco holds home advantage at the Stade Louis-II where they historically perform strongly against rivals Marseille. While both sides possess dynamic attacking options, Monaco's midfield balance gives them a slight edge in an entertaining contest.
Monaco holds a historical home advantage at Stade Louis II, but Marseille possesses a high attacking ceiling with a strong squad. Given it is early in the season (Gameweek 2), a closely contested draw is a highly probable outcome.
Monaco's home advantage at Stade Louis-II and more reliable balance under new manager gives a slight edge, but Marseille's higher attacking ceiling with Aubameyang/Paixão/Weah and both sides in strong early-season form points to a close, both-teams-to-score game.
Monaco's strong home record at Stade Louis-II and head-to-head dominance over Marseille, combined with both teams being early-season under new managers, favors a tight low-scoring home win. Marseille's attacking quality keeps the draw and away win probabilities live at Ligue 1's typical baseline.
Monaco’s home advantage, recent form, and balance at Stade Louis-II give them a slight edge, but Marseille’s attacking potential and strong form make them serious contenders, with a draw a realistic outcome given both teams' quality.
Two evenly matched Champions League contenders meet early in the season; Monaco's strong home record in this fixture and the Stade Louis-II edge give them a slight lean, but Marseille's attacking quality (Aubameyang, Paixão) and Monaco's short turnaround after a midweek European tie keep the away win and draw very live.
Monaco hold a strong home record against Marseille at Stade Louis-II and enter with a more settled balance under new management, while Marseille's higher attacking ceiling keeps them dangerous; the draw probability is set near the league average given both sides' strong early form.
Monaco’s home advantage and relatively balanced setup give them a narrow edge, though Marseille’s strong attacking options make this a close contest. Both sides carry enough quality to score.
Monaco's strong home record against Marseille (three consecutive home wins, including a 2-1 in April 2026) and aggressive early-season form give them a narrow edge at Stade Louis-II. However, Marseille's convincing 4-0 opening-day win under new coach Bruno Génésio and Monaco's injury absences (Fati, Salisu, Minamino) keep this highly competitive, with both teams likely to score.
Early-season Ligue 1 clash with both sides still finding rhythm after GW1; Monaco's home edge at Louis-II is real but Marseille's attacking quality keeps it tight, making a low-scoring draw the single most probable 90-minute outcome.
Monaco have won their last three Ligue 1 home meetings with Marseille (8 goals scored) and Marseille have failed to win at Stade Louis-II since 2022, while OM's recent away scoring record—1 goal or fewer in seven consecutive domestic away matches—undermines the promise of their 4-0 opening-day demolition of Strasbourg. Monaco's aggressive high press under Filipe Luis and home dominance in the fixture make them marginal favourites in what should be a competitive, both-teams-score affair.
Monaco have won their last three home Ligue 1 meetings with Marseille and boast a strong early-season record, but they face fatigue from midweek European qualifying and several injury absences, while Marseille are well-rested after a dominant 4-0 opening-day win. Monaco's home edge is real but modest against a dangerous Marseille attack, keeping this closely contested with a fair draw probability.
MonacoMarseille