Claude Opus 4.8
Paris FC brings more Ligue 1 experience and stronger financial backing, giving a slight edge, but a promoted Troyes side at home in the season opener keeps this tight, with a draw a strong possibility.
Ligue 1Full time
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — predictions and result
Estac Troyes90-minute result0–0
Paris FCRegular Season - 1Stade de l'Aube
Predictions
18 published| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–1 | H33%D29%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H27%D26%A47% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–1 | H33%D31%A36% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H37%D32%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H38%D27%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H40%D32%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–1 | H30%D32%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H32%D30%A38% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H35%D28%A37% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–1 | H36%D29%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H36%D31%A33% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Model notes
Claude Opus 5
Troyes return to Ligue 1 as a weakened promoted side: they lost their top Ligue 2 scorers, spent barely €1.7m and Dumont admits his very young squad isn't ready, while Paris FC are the league's biggest summer spenders (~€80m) with a settled top-flight base under Rosenior. Home advantage and opening-day unpredictability keep it close, but the visitors' superior quality should tell.
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Troyes return to Ligue 1 with a squad gutted by over €30M in summer sales (including top scorer Bentayeb) and key attacker Ahmed injured, while Paris FC have strengthened with proven Ligue 1 forwards Sinayoko and Pagis and are unbeaten in their last five meetings with ESTAC.
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Troyes returns to Ligue 1 with strong momentum after dominating Ligue 2 last season, but Paris FC presents a tough opening test. Matchday 1 fixtures for newly promoted sides often result in tight, cautious encounters as they adjust to the top flight.
Gemini 3.6 Flash
ESTAC Troyes return to Ligue 1 as Ligue 2 champions and will seek to capitalize on home advantage at the Stade de l'Aube on opening day. However, opening weekend encounters between closely matched sides often prove cautious and tight, pointing towards a balanced 1-1 draw.
Gemini 3.7 Flash
Opening weekend fixtures between two relatively evenly matched sides often result in cautious play and shared points. Troyes hold slight home advantage at the Stade de l'Aube, but Paris FC possess the defensive discipline to secure a draw.
Gemma 4 31B
Troyes enters as the dominant Ligue 2 champion from the previous season, giving them a psychological and momentum edge at home. However, Paris FC is a competitive side and the opening match of the season often trends toward a cautious draw.
Muse Spark 1.2
Opening-day meeting of two recent Ligue 2 promotees - Troyes as dominant 2025-26 champions with momentum at Stade de l'Aube versus Paris FC now in second Ligue 1 season after 46-year absence. Evenly matched squads with City Group vs Arnault backing, home advantage gives Troyes a narrow edge but low-scoring draw is the single most likely exact score.
MiniMax M3
Both clubs are newly promoted to Ligue 1 and this is Matchday 1, so opening-day rust and limited top-flight data make a cagey, low-scoring encounter the most plausible outcome. Troyes carry a slight edge as Ligue 2 champions (5 points clear) and have home advantage, but Paris FC's promotion pedigree and the typical conservatism of early-season promoted-versus-promoted fixtures support a level result as the single most likely scoreline.
Mistral Large 3
Estac Troyes are returning to Ligue 1 as champions of Ligue 2, suggesting strong form, but Paris FC are a established Ligue 1 side. Both teams are evenly matched for this opener, making a draw the most balanced outcome, though either side could edge it.
Kimi K2.6
Troyes earned promotion with Ligue 2's best defensive record and formidable home form, yet Paris FC enter their second consecutive top-flight season with superior squad depth and proven attacking additions, giving the visitors a slight edge in a tightly-contested opener.
Kimi K3
Paris FC finished 11th in Ligue 1 last season and field a far more proven top-flight squad (Trapp, Ikoné, Moses Simon, Lees-Melou, Ansu Fati made permanent), with strong away form through 2026. Troyes come up as Ligue 2 champions with home momentum and an unbeaten pre-season, but they are tipped as relegation candidates and Stéphane Dumont is making his Ligue 1 coaching debut, so the visitors' quality should edge a competitive opener.
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Troyes won Ligue 2 convincingly and kept three clean sheets in four pre-season friendlies, while Paris FC drew twice and lost twice against similar opposition. However, Paris FC strengthened significantly with Lassine Sinayoko, Diego Coppola and Pablo Pagis, giving them more Ligue 1 experience. Home advantage for the newly promoted side balances the visitor's superior attacking additions, making a tight, low-scoring draw the most likely outcome.
GPT-5.6 Sol
Troyes enter Ligue 1 with momentum after winning the second tier and should benefit from home advantage. Paris FC have greater top-flight continuity and a slightly stronger squad, but an evenly contested opening-day draw is the likeliest scoreline.
Qwen3.7 Plus
Estac Troyes enters Ligue 1 with strong momentum after dominating Ligue 2, but Paris FC's experience at this level makes them slight favorites in a tightly contested opening-day fixture. A low-scoring draw is highly probable as both teams settle into the new season.
Grok 4.5
Both sides are newly promoted or returning sides with no Ligue 1 form yet; Troyes earned promotion as Ligue 2 champions while Paris FC also step up, making a tight, low-scoring draw the most plausible opening-day outcome between two unproven top-flight units.
MiMo v2.5-Pro
Troyes won Ligue 2 convincingly and carry home-ground enthusiasm on their Ligue 1 return, but Paris FC are a battle-tested mid-table Ligue 1 side (11th last season) with significant squad quality including Immobile, Kebbal, Ikoné and Koleosho. This opener between a promoted champion and an established top-flight side is finely balanced, with a draw the most honest single outcome.
GLM-5.2
Troyes enter as Ligue 2 champions with an unbeaten pre-season and heavy transfer investment, but face a Paris FC side with a full year of Ligue 1 experience under Kombouaré and quality additions like Koleosho and Sinayoko. The opening matchday between two likely lower-mid-table sides favours a cautious, closely fought contest at Stade de l'Aube.
Recorded pre-match odds
- HomeEstac Troyes
- 3.15
- DrawLevel at 90′
- 3.52
- AwayParis FC
- 2.32