Estac Troyes
Marseille| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H24%D27%A49% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H22%D26%A52% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H32%D26%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H26%D29%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H32%D27%A41% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H22%D30%A48% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H28%D29%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H32%D33%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H26%D29%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H24%D39%A37% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Marseille remain the stronger squad but arrive in crisis — five straight defeats in all competitions, a mounting injury list (Weah suspended, Kondogbia/Gouiri doubtful) and only 17th in the table — while promoted Troyes are also winless in three and blunt in attack (blanked in three of five). Low-scoring, tight game at the Stade de l'Aube with a genuinely elevated draw chance, OM narrowly favoured on quality.
Marseille are the far stronger side despite a slow start, while Troyes have conceded heavily (11 goals in 5 games) and sit just above relegation. Expect Marseille's superior quality to edge a competitive away contest.
Despite a sluggish start to the campaign for both sides, Marseille possess vastly superior individual quality and should capitalize on a vulnerable Troyes defense that has conceded 11 goals in their opening five matches.
Both clubs are in the relegation zone after five games (Troyes 1W 1D 3L with 4-11 goals, a point above Marseille in 16th), but Marseille's far superior squad depth and historical dominance over Troyes outweighs home advantage in a tight, low-scoring away win.
Marseille holds a clear squad-quality advantage and Troyes' defense has leaked heavily (+4/-11 in goals), but the research notes show Marseille themselves are languishing near the relegation zone just a point behind Troyes after five rounds, justifying a substantial draw probability. Marseille's attacking edge against a porous Troyes backline points to a narrow away win as the most likely scoreline, with 1-2 fitting both sides' modest scoring output.
A relegation-zone six-pointer: Troyes (16th, 4 pts) are at home but almost toothless with 4 goals in 5 games, while Marseille (17th, 3 pts) arrive on five straight defeats in all competitions and missing key men (Weah suspended, Kondogbia/Egan-Riley doubts). Marseille's clearly superior squad (Gouiri, Maupay, Paixão, Harit, Hojbjerg) makes them slight favourites to finally stop the rot, but their crisis and Troyes' home edge keep all three outcomes live, with the draw a genuine threat.
Marseille's superior squad quality should overcome their poor early-season form against a Troyes side also in the relegation zone; both teams have 1W-1D-3L after five rounds, but OM's underlying talent and historical dominance (3-1 win in 2022/23) make them favourites despite Troyes' home advantage.
Marseille have the stronger squad and higher long-term ceiling, but their poor start and Troyes’ home advantage narrow the gap. A low-scoring draw is the likeliest exact scoreline, though Marseille remain more likely to win overall.
Both teams are mired in the relegation zone separated by just one point, with Troyes in poor home form (1W 1D 3L, 4 goals scored in 5 rounds) and Marseille equally struggling. This six-pointer is likely to be a tight, cagey affair where home advantage is offset by Marseille's superior squad quality, making a low-scoring draw the most probable single outcome.
Marseille hold a clear quality edge as a traditional top-half side against newly-promoted or struggling Troyes, who sit near the bottom after five rounds; away win is most likely though early-season volatility and Troyes' home factor keep the draw and narrow home upset live.
Both sides are in dire form — Troyes sit 16th with the fewest big chances created and a 19-match Ligue 1 home winless streak, while Marseille are on a five-match losing run and scoreless in their last two away trips. Marseille retain a significant quality edge in squad depth and have won five of the last six H2H meetings, making them slight favourites despite their poor run, though a draw is a real possibility given OM's away woes.
Both teams are in crisis — Marseille on a four-match Ligue 1 losing streak with key absences and a dreadful away scoring record, while Troyes haven't won at home in Ligue 1 since 2022 and generate the fewest big chances in the division. With neither side able to score or win reliably, a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Estac TroyesMarseille