Real Sociedad
Atletico Madrid| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H32%D28%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H30%D36%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H30%D31%A39% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H32%D33%A35% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H30%D30%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 0–1 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H30%D33%A37% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H27%D28%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H31%D30%A39% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Atletico carry the stronger squad and travel in decent league form, but they arrive off a midweek Champions League defeat to Liverpool and Anoeta remains a difficult venue for a Sociedad side that has started well and is fresher. Their meetings are typically tight, low-scoring affairs, so a draw is a very live outcome with Atletico marginally favoured.
Real Sociedad are at home and have stabilised with seven points from their last three, while Atletico arrive on back-to-back defeats and missing Alexander Sorloth; their recent La Liga meetings have been tight, including a 1-1 draw in the corresponding fixture last season.
Atletico Madrid possess greater individual quality but face a quick turnaround following their midweek European fixture, making a tightly contested draw at Anoeta the most probable outcome.
Atletico have superior talent (Alvarez, Romero, Baena) and long H2H dominance since Jan 2022, but face a 4-day turnaround after Liverpool and travel to Anoeta while Real Sociedad had a full week after beating Elche and are at home without Jon Martin suspended.
Atletico have not lost to Real Sociedad in any competition since January 2022 and boast the stronger squad (Alvarez, Baena, Llorente), but they are fatigued from a midweek Champions League loss to Liverpool and a second consecutive defeat, while a well-rested Real Sociedad side enjoys home advantage — pointing to a tight, low-scoring stalemate similar to last season's 1-1 at this venue.
Real Sociedad are fresher after a full week of preparation and play at home, but Atletico Madrid's defensive solidity and counter-attacking threat make them formidable. The recent head-to-head history favors a tight, low-scoring match, with both teams likely to create and concede limited chances.
Atletico arrive at Anoeta on back-to-back defeats including a midweek Champions League loss to Liverpool, while a rested Real Sociedad beat Elche last time and still carry confidence from their Copa del Rey final win over Simeone's side. Atletico's superior squad depth and long unbeaten league run in this fixture make them slight favourites, but fatigue and Sociedad's home edge point to a typically tight, low-scoring contest, with 1-1 the modal scoreline as in recent meetings.
Atletico Madrid have not lost to Real Sociedad in any competition since January 2022 and boast a superior defensive structure with Oblak in goal; Real Sociedad miss suspended defender Jon Martin and face a side adept at counter-attacks.
Atletico have the stronger squad and a favorable recent head-to-head record, but their short turnaround after facing Liverpool reduces their away advantage. Real Sociedad's home edge makes a low-scoring draw the likeliest exact scoreline.
Atletico Madrid travel to Anoeta fatigued after a midweek Champions League loss to Liverpool and must field a makeshift backline (Le Normand alongside Pubill), but their superior squad quality (Alvarez, Baena, Koke) keeps them as narrow favorites. Real Sociedad have had a full week to prepare and are at home, but miss Jon Martin through suspension and have a poor recent H2H record against Simeone's side, making a tight, low-scoring draw the most likely single outcome.
Atletico hold the historical edge and stronger squad depth despite recent European fatigue and two straight losses, while Sociedad are solid at home but missing a key defender; low-scoring draw is the modal outcome given Simeone's defensive setup and early-season caution.
Atletico's La Liga H2H dominance over Real Sociedad (unbeaten since 2019) and Baena's form give them the edge despite playing away, though Sociedad's Copa del Rey triumph over them last season and home advantage make a draw very plausible. Sociedad's defensive vulnerabilities—leaking goals in four of their last five—tilt the balance toward Simeone's side in a tight contest.
Atletico's superior squad quality and dominant La Liga H2H record (unbeaten vs Real Sociedad since 2019) give them a slight edge despite two consecutive defeats and fatigue from their midweek Champions League trip to Anfield. Real Sociedad's home advantage, good recent form (7 points from last 3), and extra rest keep this closely contested, with the draw a strong possibility.
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid