Rayo Vallecano
Alaves| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–0 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–0 | H44%D30%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Missed | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Exact |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–0 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H33%D28%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–0 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H43%D30%A27% | Missed | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–0 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–0 | H48%D28%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–0 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–0 | H45%D28%A27% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Rayo have an excellent home record versus Alaves (four straight home wins without conceding) and will be motivated to bounce back after their opening-day defeat, though Alaves arrive in form after a 3-0 win over Getafe (aided by a red card).
Rayo are traditionally awkward and effective at Vallecas, while Alaves are a low-scoring side who have struggled historically in this fixture and typically travel with a cautious, counter-attacking setup. With both squads reported near-full strength this early in the season, a tight, low-scoring home win is most likely, though the draw is a very live outcome.
Rayo's strong home head-to-head against Alaves, including four straight home wins without conceding, points to a narrow home victory, though Alaves' opening 3-0 win and Rayo's defensive absences keep a draw/away result plausible.
Rayo Vallecano boast an excellent home record against Alaves, having won their last four meetings at the Estadio de Vallecas without conceding a single goal. Despite a frustrating opening-day defeat, their historical dominance in this fixture makes them slight favorites to bounce back with a narrow victory.
Rayo Vallecano aim to recover from a late opening-day defeat in their first home match at Estadio de Vallecas, where they have won their last four encounters against Alaves without conceding. While Alaves made a strong start with a 3-1 victory over Getafe, Rayo's historical home dominance in this matchup gives them a edge.
Rayo Vallecano hold the home advantage at Vallecas with a fully fit squad, giving them a slight edge in what is expected to be a tight, low-scoring contest against a compact Alaves side.
Rayo Vallecano are in strong form and pushing for European qualification, but Alaves have shown recent improvement under Quique Sanchez Flores, including a win over Barcelona. Given the high stakes for both teams and the tendency for draws in these mid-table clashes, a level score is highly probable.
Rayo's Vallecas home advantage, full fitness and just one Alaves win in last five H2Hs makes them narrow favourites, but Alaves' six goals in last two and improvement under Quique Sanchez Flores plus Rayo's tendency to need the first goal suggests a tight, scoring draw is the single most likely exact score.
Rayo Vallecano's home advantage and stronger recent form (pushing for European qualification last season) outweighs Alaves, who have historically struggled in this H2H (only 1 win in last 5 meetings) and remain without banned defender Garces. The early-season context and Alaves' decent scoring in recent matches justify a healthy draw probability, but a narrow home win is the single most likely outcome.
Rayo Vallecano are in strong form and pushing for European qualification, but Alaves have been resilient under Quique Sánchez Flores, especially at home, and are unbeaten in their last three matches. A draw is a realistic outcome given Alaves' recent defensive solidity and Rayo's reliance on scoring first to secure away wins.
Rayo Vallecano have won their last four home meetings with Alaves without conceding a single goal, and Alaves recorded only four away wins all of last season; while Alaves arrive with momentum after beating Getafe, the head-to-head dominance at Vallecas and Rayo’s urgency to atone for an opening-day defeat make a narrow home win the most likely outcome.
Rayo's 'home' advantage is heavily diluted: the club is in administrative turmoil and must host this match at Leganes' stadium because Vallecas is deemed unsafe, and they arrive off a stoppage-time penalty defeat at Sevilla after losing the Conference League final. Alaves, by contrast, carried their strong finish under Quique Sanchez Flores (16 points from 11 last spring) into a 3-0 opening-day win over Getafe, with Mariano Diaz and Toni Martinez in sharp form — though Rayo's strong recent head-to-head record keeps them very much in contention, making the draw a live outcome.
Rayo have won their last four home meetings with Alaves without conceding, and were unlucky to lose 1-2 to Sevilla on MD1 after leading early and conceding two penalties. Alaves' 3-0 opening win came against 10-man Getafe with all goals late; their away form last season was poor (4 wins). Rayo's home H2H dominance and bounce-back motivation give them a slight edge, but Alaves' attacking momentum under Quique Sánchez Flores keeps the draw and away win live.
Rayo's home advantage, full availability and strong recent record in this matchup give them a slight edge. Alaves' six goals across their last two matches increase the chance of a tight score draw.
Rayo Vallecano have home advantage and a fully fit squad, while Alaves are missing defender Facundo Garces through suspension and have won only one of their last five against Rayo. However, Rayo's Europa Conference League final commitments could slightly blunt their early-season sharpness, keeping this a tight, low-scoring affair.
Rayo hold a dominant recent H2H edge (4 of last 5, including four straight home clean-sheet wins vs Alaves) and Vallecas home advantage against an Alaves side that managed only four away wins all last season; Alaves' opening 3-0 was heavily red-card assisted while Rayo merely need to atone for a late-penalty opener loss.
Rayo Vallecano hold home advantage and had a strong 2025/26 campaign pushing for Europe, while Alaves have historically struggled in this fixture with only one win in their last five against Rayo. With Rayo's full squad fit and Alaves missing defender Garces to a FIFA ban, the hosts are slight favorites in this early-season encounter.
Rayo's dominant home record against Alaves — four straight wins at Vallecas without conceding — and motivation after a frustrating opening-day loss favor the hosts, though significant defensive reshuffling (Chavarria and Mendy sold, Luiz Felipe injured) gives Alaves a route in despite their poor away form.
Rayo VallecanoAlaves