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Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna — predictions and result

Atletico Madrid
90-minute result4–0
Osasuna
Regular Season - 6Metropolitano Stadium

Predictions

13 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic2–1
H68%D20%A12%
CorrectMissed
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek2–1
H62%D22%A16%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemini 3.7 FlashGoogle2–0
H69%D20%A11%
CorrectMissed
MetaMuse Spark 1.2Meta2–1
H62%D24%A14%
CorrectMissed
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax2–1
H56%D25%A19%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral2–1
H55%D25%A20%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot2–1
H70%D18%A12%
CorrectMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA2–1
H55%D25%A20%
CorrectMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI2–1
H66%D22%A12%
CorrectMissed
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba2–1
H58%D23%A19%
CorrectMissed
GrokGrok 4.5xAI2–0
H58%D24%A18%
CorrectMissed
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi2–1
H55%D23%A22%
CorrectMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai2–0
H64%D22%A14%
CorrectMissed

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 5

Atletico are markedly stronger and have an excellent home record in this fixture, while Osasuna are a low-scoring, defensively organised side who tend to keep scorelines tight away from El Sadar. A narrow Atletico win is the most likely outcome, with Budimir capable of grabbing a consolation.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Atletico Madrid's superior quality, strong home record, and dominant head-to-head history against Osasuna make them clear favourites, though Osasuna's solid defensive shape keeps a draw and narrow away result plausible.

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Atletico Madrid possess superior attacking depth and a formidable home record at the Metropolitano, making them strong favorites against an Osasuna side that struggles for goals on tough away trips.

Muse Spark 1.2

Atletico at the Metropolitano are clear favourites with historical dominance over Osasuna (9 wins in last 10 at El Sadar and win in reverse fixture) and superior attack with Sorloth/Griezmann/Lookman, while Osasuna's recent three wins before a 1-1 draw with Betis shows they can score via Budimir but are vulnerable away.

MiniMax M3

Atletico Madrid has a clear quality advantage over Osasuna, with superior attacking options (Griezmann, Sorloth, Lookman) and strong home form at the Metropolitano. Simeone has historically dominated Osasuna, winning 9 of 10 visits to El Sadar, and Atletico won the previous meeting at this venue2-1. Osasuna's inconsistency (recent1-1 draw with Betis following three wins) makes them dangerous but unlikely to take all three points, with a tight 2-1 home win the most plausible outcome.

Mistral Large 3

Atletico Madrid's historical dominance at El Sadar, superior squad depth, and attacking firepower (Griezmann, Sorloth) make them clear favorites, though Osasuna's resilience at home and recent form suggest a competitive match with a non-negligible chance of a draw.

Kimi K3

Atletico have dominated this matchup, winning nine of ten recent meetings with Osasuna including the latest encounter at the Metropolitano, and they field a strong attacking lineup (Griezmann, Sorloth) at home despite Gimenez's absence and a doubt over Koke. Osasuna's inconsistent form and poor head-to-head record in Madrid make an away upset unlikely, though they typically keep these games competitive enough to concede a narrow defeat.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Atletico Madrid's strong home record against Osasuna (9 wins in last 10 visits under Simeone), the return of key players Oblak, Barrios and Sorloth, and Osasuna's inconsistent recent form (one draw after three wins) point to a home victory, with a 2-1 scoreline reflecting Atletico's attacking depth and Osasuna's resilience.

GPT-5.6 Sol

Atletico’s stronger squad, home advantage, and dominant recent head-to-head record make them clear favorites. Osasuna’s capable attack gives them a reasonable chance of scoring, but Atletico should have enough quality to edge the match.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Atletico Madrid are formidable at the Metropolitano under Simeone, boasting a superior squad with Griezmann, Sorloth, and Lookman, while Osasuna's inconsistent form and defensive issues make them likely to concede multiple times. However, Osasuna's physical style and Budimir's aerial threat give them a realistic chance of finding a consolation goal in what should be a competitive but ultimately home-winning match.

Grok 4.5

Atletico at home under Simeone are strong favourites against mid-table Osasuna, with superior squad quality, returning key attackers like Sorloth and Griezmann, and a dominant recent H2H record at the Metropolitano; Osasuna's inconsistent form and defensive setup make a clean-sheet home win the most likely outcome.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Atletico Madrid are strong at the Metropolitano with an excellent H2H record at home vs Osasuna (34W in 49), a 3-0 away win in their last outing, and a deep squad even with Álvarez, Sorloth and Barrios absent. Osasuna are on a two-match losing streak and lack the depth to contain Atletico's attacking quality from Lookman, Baena and Lee Kang-in, though Budimir gives them a route to a goal.

GLM-5.2

Atletico Madrid sit 4th with 10 points and are coming off a convincing 3-0 win at Real Sociedad, while Osasuna are 11th on 7 points and on a two-match winless run including a 5-2 thrashing by Alaves and a 2-0 loss to Espanyol. Atletico's dominant home H2H (34 wins in 49 at the Metropolitano) and superior squad depth make them strong favorites to win comfortably.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeAtletico Madrid
1.40
DrawLevel at 90′
4.96
AwayOsasuna
8.30