Alaves
Atletico Madrid| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H23%D27%A50% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 0–2 | H16%D24%A60% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 0–2 | H18%D27%A55% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 0–2 | H18%D24%A58% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 0–1 | H18%D25%A57% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 0–2 | H20%D26%A54% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 0–2 | H22%D24%A54% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 0–1 | H18%D27%A55% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 0–2 | H20%D24%A56% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H24%D27%A49% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 0–2 | H23%D25%A52% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 0–2 | H17%D24%A59% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Atletico have far superior squad depth and a strong historical record against Alaves, who are solid but limited at home and missing defenders Mikel Rodriguez and Garces. Mendizorrotza is traditionally a tight, low-scoring venue, so a narrow Atletico win is likeliest with a real chance of a draw.
Atletico Madrid are clearly the stronger side and have dominated this fixture historically, while Alaves are missing key defenders and face a significant gap in chance creation and pass accuracy. Alaves' home edge keeps a draw plausible, but an away win is the most likely outcome.
Atletico Madrid possess superior quality and defensive organization across the pitch to control the contest at Mendizorrotza. Alaves are missing several key defensive options and will struggle to contain Diego Simeone's attacking firepower.
Atletico's deeper, expensively assembled squad, eight-match unbeaten run and dominant H2H (12 wins in 20, 28-12 goals, double shot volume) outweigh Alaves' home advantage, with Alaves winless in six and missing Rodriguez, Garces and Koski.
Atletico Madrid's superior squad depth, Simeone's tactical flexibility, and a dominant historical H2H record (12W-6D-2L with 28 goals scored vs 12) make them clear favorites despite Alaves' home advantage at Mendizorrotza; a narrow, low-scoring away win is the most typical Simeone-era outcome, with the draw given honest weight given Alaves' home support and Atletico's occasional slow starts on the road.
Atletico Madrid bring a far deeper, in-form squad and have dominated this fixture historically (12 wins, 6 draws, just 2 losses in 20 meetings, 28-12 on goals), while Alaves are missing Rodriguez, Garces and Koski. Mendizorroza can be awkward and these meetings are typically low-scoring (avg 2.0 goals), so a controlled away win with a clean sheet looks most likely, though the draw remains a live possibility.
Atletico Madrid hold a commanding historical edge (12W-6D-2L in 20 H2H meetings) and superior underlying metrics (shot volume 66 vs 33, pass accuracy 87% vs 76%). Alaves are missing three defenders (Rodriguez, Garces, Koski), while Simeone's side are pushing for the title and Tips.GG projects a two-goal away win (0-2 or 1-3).
Atletico's deeper, higher-quality squad and strong head-to-head record make them clear favorites. Alaves' home advantage and the historically low-scoring nature of this matchup keep the draw probability significant.
Atletico Madrid dominate the head-to-head (12 wins, 6 draws, 2 losses in 20 meetings) and possess a significantly stronger squad, while Alaves are missing three players. Simeone's side typically grinds out low-scoring away wins, and the H2H average of 2.0 goals per game supports a tight 0-2 victory, though Alaves' home advantage and intent to push forward keep the draw probability honest.
Atletico sit 2nd on 16pts with three straight league wins (incl. Real Madrid) and a fully fit squad under Simeone, while Alaves (6th, 11pts) miss three centre-backs and have just one win in three; Boyé's form and home edge make a narrow away win the clearest outcome.
Atletico Madrid dominate this H2H (12W-6D-2L across 20 meetings, 28-12 goals) and are competing at the top of the table with Simeone's flexible system yielding strong shot volume and passing accuracy. Alaves have notable absentees and their inferior xG/shot profile makes an Atletico clean-sheet away win the most likely single outcome.
Atletico Madrid's superior squad depth, dominant H2H record (12 wins in 20 meetings), and title-chasing motivation make them clear favourites, though Alaves' home advantage at Mendizorrotza and Atletico's occasional away struggles keep the draw in play.
AlavesAtletico Madrid