Newcastle
Aston Villa| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H31%D27%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H25%D29%A46% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H32%D28%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H28%D28%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H30%D33%A37% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H35%D35%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H31%D27%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H28%D34%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H30%D29%A41% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H29%D29%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D30%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H25%D30%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H29%D34%A37% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Newcastle under Jaissle are in a defensive and attacking slump (just 3 goals in their last five, among the league's worst defensive records in 2026), while Villa arrive in strong form domestically and in Europe with Jackson scoring freely and good away returns. Home advantage at St James' Park keeps it close, so a narrow Villa win or a tight draw are the likeliest outcomes.
Villa arrive in stronger attacking form, scoring 14 goals in their last five matches, while Newcastle have been defensively fragile in 2026; St James' Park and the tight nature of the matchup keep the draw probability elevated.
Aston Villa enter the clash in prolific scoring form led by Nicolas Jackson, while Newcastle continue to grapple with defensive vulnerabilities that give the visitors the edge at St James' Park.
Aston Villa's resurgent attack (14 goals in last 5, Nicolas Jackson 4 in last 3) contrasts with Newcastle's poor 2026 defensive record (44 goals conceded, 12 defeats) and low scoring (3 in last 5); despite St James' Park home advantage and expected response after Monday's defeat, Villa's superior road form and momentum point to a narrow away win in a tight contest.
Newcastle are in deep slump (12 PL losses in 2026, joint-most goals conceded) but hold home advantage at St James' Park, while Villa arrive resurgent with 14 goals in their last 5 matches and an in-form Jackson (4 goals in last 3). Both sides show clear defensive fragility, and multiple previews lean toward a tight, cagey contest — a hard-fought draw (1-1) is the modal outcome, with Villa's superior attacking form giving them a slight edge on the win probability.
Both teams exhibit defensive vulnerabilities and recent attacking struggles, with Aston Villa's slight edge in form and away performance balanced by Newcastle's home advantage. A tightly contested draw is the most likely outcome.
Newcastle's 2026 record is dire (12 league defeats, joint-most 44 goals conceded, just 3 goals in their last five), while Villa arrive in excellent attacking form (14 in five, Jackson scoring freely) with a strong away record under Emery; St James' Park and Villa's midweek European exertions keep this competitive and the draw very much alive, but the form gap points to a narrow away win.
Aston Villa's potent attack (14 goals in last 5) contrasts with Newcastle's defensive frailties (joint-most goals conceded in 2026), but home advantage and mutual caution at St James' Park make a tight, low-scoring draw the most likely outcome.
Villa’s stronger attacking form and Newcastle’s defensive vulnerability give the visitors a slight edge. However, Newcastle’s home advantage makes a closely contested draw the likeliest individual scoreline.
Aston Villa are in significantly better attacking form (14 goals in 5 games vs Newcastle's 3) and have been stronger on the road, while Newcastle's defense has been among the worst in the league (44 conceded). However, Villa's midweek European fixture (Fenerbahçe on Oct 14) introduces fatigue, and St James' Park remains a difficult venue, keeping this tight and favoring a narrow away result or draw.
Villa's superior recent scoring form (14 goals in last 5 vs Newcastle's 3) and stronger away record give them the edge in a tight contest, while Newcastle's defensive fragility and recent bruising defeat make a home win less likely; a narrow away victory or draw is most probable.
Aston Villa are in far superior attacking form (14 goals in last 5 games vs Newcastle's 3) and have been stronger on the road this season, while Newcastle have the joint-worst defensive record in the league in 2026 (44 goals conceded) and are coming off a bruising defeat. St James' Park home support and Villa's own defensive fragility keep the draw very much alive, but Villa's resurgent momentum under Emery makes them slight favourites to edge this.
Newcastle have been defensively poor with 12 PL losses in 2026 and the joint-most goals conceded, while Aston Villa arrive in strong form having scored 14 goals in their last five matches with in-form striker Nicolas Jackson. A tight contest is expected, but Villa's superior form and road success give them a slight edge in what could easily end level.
NewcastleAston Villa