Manchester United
Manchester City| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H31%D26%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H32%D24%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H27%D26%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H34%D28%A38% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H30%D27%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H34%D32%A34% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H25%D25%A50% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H24%D25%A51% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H29%D26%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H29%D26%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H32%D29%A39% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
City arrive top of the table with a perfect league start under Maresca (plus a 2-0 win at Porto) and a stronger squad, while United have been inconsistent (0-2 at Hull, 2-2 at Everton) despite a strong home record under Carrick and last season's derby win. Old Trafford and Baleba/Amad absences keep it close, so a narrow City win or a draw are both live outcomes.
Manchester City's perfect start and Haaland's form make them marginal favourites, but United's strong Old Trafford record under Carrick and both sides' defensive vulnerabilities point to an entertaining draw, with 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline.
Manchester City bring superior form and attacking firepower led by Erling Haaland into the derby. While Manchester United have home advantage at Old Trafford, their defensive vulnerabilities make City the favorites to edge a competitive clash.
City arrive with four straight wins and greater firepower led by Haaland while United have taken just four points from three league games; Old Trafford and United's counter-attacking derby record keep it close but City remain narrow favourites with draw still very live.
Despite City's perfect 4-win start under Maresca, the Manchester derby at Old Trafford tends to be tight, and City's recent record in this fixture has been poor. United's home advantage, Rashford's return, and Thursday's emphatic performance give them a fighting chance, while Haaland's form keeps City dangerous — making a share of the points the most plausible outcome.
Manchester City enter the derby with stronger squad depth, tactical flexibility, and recent form, while Manchester United are still finding consistency despite home advantage. The predicted lineups suggest City's midfield and attacking options (e.g., Haaland, Foden, Cherki) are likely to exploit United's vulnerabilities, though United's familiarity with derby tactics could keep them competitive.
City arrive with four straight wins to open Maresca's season and field a formidable attack led by Haaland with Foden, Cherki and Semenyo behind him, making them slight favourites despite being away. However, United's strong recent derby record, Old Trafford advantage and a boost from Rashford's return plus their emphatic midweek win keep this competitive, so a draw carries an honest elevated probability.
Manchester derby at Old Trafford with United's poor start (4 pts/3 games) offset by home advantage and City's weak recent H2H record; City have won 4 straight under Maresca but derby form often defies league trends, making a tight, low-scoring draw the single most likely outcome.
Manchester City appear to have the stronger, more settled attack, with Haaland supported by several high-level creators. United’s home advantage and recent derby competitiveness keep the draw and upset probabilities meaningful.
Manchester City are in imperious form with four straight wins under new boss Maresca and sit top of the table, while United have been defensively fragile, conceding two in all three league matches. However, Old Trafford derbies are historically tight, Carrick boasts a strong home record, and United are likely to score given both teams have found the net in their last seven home PL games, making a narrow City victory the most probable outcome.
City lead the table with three straight PL wins and Haaland in elite form under Maresca, while United sit mid-table after a mixed start and defensive leaks; Old Trafford and recent home derby success give United a real chance, but City's superior quality and momentum make an away win the most probable, with a high-scoring 1-2 the likeliest scoreline.
Manchester City have opened with four consecutive wins under new manager Maresca and boast a formidable lineup led by Haaland, while United have managed just 4 points from 3 games; however, derby matches at Old Trafford are typically tight affairs and City's recent record against United has been underwhelming, keeping the home side competitive.
City's perfect start under Maresca and Haaland's prolific record give them a slight edge, but United's excellent home form under Carrick (9 wins from 10) and recent derby superiority (won this fixture 2-0 last season, City have 1 win in last 4 meetings) keep this competitive. United's defensive frailty — conceding 2 in each of their first 3 games with de Ligt and Ugarte injured — tilts the balance toward a narrow City victory.
Manchester UnitedManchester City