Leeds
Newcastle| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H33%D28%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H39%D30%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H38%D32%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H41%D28%A31% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H37%D30%A33% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H38%D28%A34% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Both sides have five points from three games: Leeds have been defensively stubborn at Elland Road (only two league goals conceded) while Newcastle's rebuilt midfield after losing Guimaraes and Tonali leaves them reliant on Elanga's transitions. Newcastle retain the edge in squad quality and have travelled well, but a tight, low-scoring game under the Monday-night atmosphere makes the draw a strong live option.
Leeds have a slight edge from Elland Road and a settled league defence, but Newcastle are unbeaten and carry a real threat on the break through Elanga and Wissa, making this a tight, low-scoring game with a draw very live.
Both sides have started the campaign solidly with five points each, and while Leeds hold home advantage at Elland Road, Newcastle's pace on the break makes for an evenly matched encounter.
Leeds' league defensive solidity (2 conceded in 3 games) and Trafford returning at Elland Road gives them a slight edge, but Rodon's absence and Newcastle's perfect away record with in-form Elanga exploiting the wing-back space balances it, pointing to a tight low-scoring game where 1-1 is the single most likely scoreline.
Both sides sit on 5 points after three games, with Leeds' home advantage and mean league defence (2 conceded in 3) offset by Newcastle winning both away matches this season and Elanga's threat on the break. Leeds' midweek 6-3 cup collapse at Chelsea (with a backup keeper) and Newcastle's rebuilding midfield after Guimaraes and Tonali's departures point to a tight, low-scoring contest where a draw feels the most likely single outcome, though Leeds shading it overall.
Leeds show defensive resilience in league matches but recent defensive collapse against Chelsea raises concerns, while Newcastle's away form and physicality suggest a tightly contested match with a slight edge to Leeds at home.
Two sides level on five points and closely matched: Leeds are defensively stubborn in league play (two conceded in three) with first-choice keeper Trafford returning, but Newcastle have won both away games and carry a real counter-attacking threat through the in-form Elanga despite their midfield rebuild. Home edge makes Leeds slight favourites, but a low-scoring draw is very live.
Leeds have a solid home defensive record in the league (2 GA in 3 games) with Trafford returning, but Newcastle have won both away games this season and Elanga is in form; both sides sit on 5 points with key absences (Rodon, Dedic) and Newcastle's midfield transition balances Leeds' cup collapse, making a low-scoring draw the most likely single outcome.
Leeds’ home advantage and solid early league defending offset Newcastle’s threat on the break, particularly through Elanga. Newcastle’s rebuilt midfield and both sides’ defensive vulnerabilities make a tight score draw the likeliest scoreline.
Both teams sit level on 5 points from 3 games, making this an evenly contested fixture. Leeds are defensively solid in the league (only 2 conceded) with first-choice keeper Trafford returning, but Newcastle have won both away games and boast in-form Anthony Elanga; the loss of Bruno Guimaraes and Tonali weakens their midfield but their physical approach could frustrate Farke's 3-4-2-1 at Elland Road.
Both sides sit on 5 points after three games with Leeds showing strong early league defensive solidity (only two conceded) at Elland Road under Farke’s 3-4-2-1, while Newcastle’s midfield rebuild and away resilience keep them competitive; a tight, low-scoring draw is the most probable 90-minute outcome given the even records and mutual vulnerabilities.
Leeds have been solid defensively in league play (only 2 goals conceded in 3 games) and James Trafford returns in goal after the Chelsea cup collapse, while Newcastle's rebuilt midfield without Bruno Guimaraes and Tonali may struggle at Elland Road; however, Newcastle's two away wins and Elanga's form keep this tight, with a draw the honest baseline probability for these evenly-matched sides on 5 points each.
Leeds hold home advantage and have been defensively solid in the league (only 2 conceded in 3 games), while Newcastle's midfield is being rebuilt after the departures of Guimaraes and Tonali. However, Newcastle have won both away games this season and Elanga's counter-attacking threat makes this a tight, closely matched contest where a draw is highly plausible.
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