Leeds
Manchester United| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H39%D29%A32% | Missed | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H49%D27%A24% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H34%D28%A38% | Missed | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H44%D27%A29% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Exact |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H40%D30%A30% | Missed | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H41%D27%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H38%D29%A33% | Missed | Exact |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H43%D26%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H47%D27%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H43%D27%A30% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H48%D28%A24% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Leeds arrive in better form (7th, nine points, a full week's rest) and Elland Road is a hostile venue, while Carrick's Manchester United sit 13th on six points, are five games without a win and are missing Sesko, Ugarte, Dorgu and likely Shaw/Mainoo. Leeds' own lack of cutting edge up front and United's individual quality in transition make a tight, low-scoring derby with a high draw chance the most likely shape.
Leeds are unbeaten at home and sit 7th with better cohesion and form, while Manchester United are winless in five in all competitions and depleted by injuries to Sesko, Ugarte, Dorgu, Mainoo, Shaw and Mazraoui. Elland Road's hostile derby atmosphere and Leeds' home edge make a narrow home win the likeliest outcome, with a draw a credible secondary result.
Leeds enter the derby with strong cohesion and home advantage at Elland Road, while Manchester United's individual quality keeps them dangerous despite inconsistent form.
Leeds at Elland Road have better form (9pts, 7th vs United's 6pts), more cohesion and home advantage with a high-pressing 3-5-2, while Manchester United are struggling and reliant on Bruno Fernandes-led transitions to stay competitive.
Leeds hold home advantage and the research notes highlight their better form, greater cohesion, and fewer visible cracks compared to a struggling Manchester United side, but United's individual quality through Bruno Fernandes and the intense, physical nature of this rivalry keep the outcome genuinely uncertain; a 1-1 stalemate reflects the tight, transitional battle expected at Elland Road.
Leeds hold a slight edge due to home advantage, better recent form (9 points vs United's 6), and tactical cohesion in a high-pressing system, but Manchester United's quality and attacking fluidity make them strong contenders in a tightly contested derby with a high probability of a draw.
Leeds have made the stronger start (9 points, 7th) and get a struggling Manchester United (6 points, low on confidence) at a hostile Elland Road, making the hosts slight favourites; however, United's individual quality through Bruno Fernandes keeps an away win live, and the high-pressing, transition-heavy nature of this rivalry points toward goals.
Leeds enter with better form (9 pts vs 6), home advantage at Elland Road, and greater tactical cohesion under Farke; United possess individual quality through Fernandes but show visible cracks. The historic rivalry and high-pressing Leeds vs transition-heavy United dynamic favors a tight, physical contest with Leeds edging a narrow win.
Leeds’ home advantage, stronger cohesion and aggressive pressing should trouble a Manchester United side described as struggling. United retain enough individual creativity to earn a point in a physical, transition-heavy contest.
Leeds enter with better form (9 pts vs 6), home advantage at a hostile Elland Road, and greater tactical cohesion under Farke's high-pressing 3-5-2, giving them the edge. However, Manchester United's quality through Bruno Fernandes and the intense rivalry nature keep this competitive, making a narrow home win the most likely outcome in a physical, transition-heavy contest.
Leeds sit higher with a stronger start (only one PL loss), excellent home record and intensity under Farke, while United are winless in five, winless away, and disrupted by injuries plus internal tension. Home edge and recent H2H tilt the most likely result to a narrow Leeds win.
Leeds hold significant advantages: better league form (9 pts vs 6), home support at Elland Road, full rest week while United suffered a 2-0 Champions League loss at Atlético midweek, and far fewer injury absences (3 vs 7). United retain enough individual quality (Fernandes, Mbeumo, Cunha) to keep this competitive, but Leeds' cohesion, defensive resilience, and the memory of their 2-1 win at Old Trafford last April make a home victory the most likely outcome in this intense rivalry.
Leeds boast the league's best defense (0.6 goals conceded per game), sit in better form with 9 points from 6, and hold home advantage at Elland Road against a Manchester United side winless in five, missing seven players to injury, and reeling from a midweek Champions League defeat. United's quality could still produce a goal in a fiery rivalry, but Leeds' defensive solidity and cohesion make them clear favorites.
LeedsManchester United