Fulham
Chelsea| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.8Anthropic | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H26%D25%A49% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H27%D27%A46% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle | 1–2 | H25%D27%A48% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H25%D27%A48% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H23%D26%A51% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemma 4 31BGoogle | 1–2 | H28%D26%A46% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K2.6Moonshot | 1–2 | H27%D28%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H27%D26%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H30%D28%A42% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H33%D27%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H26%D28%A46% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Chelsea's superior squad depth and heavy summer investment under Xabi Alonso make them favorites, though Fulham's home advantage at Craven Cottage (where they beat Chelsea 2-1 in January) and both sides' opening-day uncertainty under new managers keep this competitive with a decent draw chance.
Chelsea's squad depth and individual quality (Palmer, Joao Pedro, Rogers) under Xabi Alonso clearly outstrips a Fulham side rebuilding under rookie boss Arbeloa after losing Marco Silva and Harry Wilson, with only Fofana suspended for the visitors. Craven Cottage and opening-weekend uncertainty for a new-look Chelsea keep the draw live, but a narrow away win is the most likely outcome.
Chelsea's heavily reinforced squad under Xabi Alonso possesses superior quality across the pitch, but Fulham have won their last two home meetings in this derby and both sides enter new eras on opening day, making a tight contest with goals at both ends the most likely outcome.
Chelsea begin a new era under Xabi Alonso and boast a superior squad on paper, but a tricky opening-day West London derby at Craven Cottage will test them. Fulham's smart summer recruitment should make them competitive, though Chelsea's attacking quality with Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro gives the visitors a narrow edge.
Chelsea possess superior individual quality and tactical firepower under new manager Xabi Alonso, giving them the edge at Craven Cottage. Fulham are entering a transitional period under Álvaro Arbeloa following key player departures and the suspension of central defender Joachim Andersen.
Chelsea possess superior attacking firepower and tactical depth to edge a competitive West London derby, though Fulham's solid home structure will make it a tightly contested opening fixture.
Chelsea enters the season under new manager Xabi Alonso with a strong squad including Cole Palmer and Joao Pedro, making them favorites despite the derby atmosphere. Fulham is confident and has key contributors like Iwobi, but Chelsea's individual quality should edge this opening fixture.
West London derby at Craven Cottage to open the season with both sides under new managers (Alonso's 3-4-3 for Chelsea, Arbeloa/Rosenior for Fulham). Chelsea's individual quality with Palmer and 15-goal Joao Pedro makes them narrow favourites away, but early-season tactical transition and Fulham's home organisation point to a tight one-goal margin.
Chelsea are slight favorites on paper with their heavy summer investment (Lacroix, Colwill, Hato, Joao Pedro) and Joao Pedro's proven 15-goal scoring threat, but they finished a disappointing 10th last season and are under a new manager (reports conflict between Alonso/Rosenior), so an opening-night away win is not assured. Fulham at Craven Cottage are well-organized under their own new boss, have Iwobi in fine form (4G/3A), and West London derbies are typically tight — making a 1-1 draw the single most likely scoreline, with Chelsea edging a narrow win as a close second.
Chelsea, under new manager Xabi Alonso, are likely to start the season with tactical discipline and attacking intent, but Fulham’s strong home setup, key summer signings, and the motivation of a West London derby make this a finely balanced fixture. The draw is a genuine possibility, but Chelsea’s slight edge in squad depth and ambition tips the scales in their favor.
Chelsea’s superior individual quality and João Pedro’s sharp pre-season form give them a narrow edge in a West London derby that should see both teams score, but Fulham’s strong home record and Chelsea’s struggles in openers under new managers keep the contest tight.
Chelsea start as slight favourites despite the short trip to Craven Cottage: their spine of Sanchez, Caicedo, Palmer and Joao Pedro (last season's 15-goal top scorer) is stronger on paper, and a new-manager bounce under Xabi Alonso is plausible, though a back-three system in Gameweek 1 carries teething risk. Fulham are settled and well-coached with Iwobi pulling strings and smart summer additions, so a tight West London derby with the draw very live and Chelsea edging it is the base case.
Chelsea's superior attacking talent (Palmer, João Pedro, Caicedo) under new manager Xabi Alonso edges a tight West London derby, but Fulham's home advantage, Iwobi's creativity, and season-opener caution keep the draw probability high.
Chelsea have greater individual quality and attacking upside, but they begin under a new manager after a 10th-place finish. Fulham's home advantage and the derby setting make a tight, level match the likeliest exact scoreline.
Chelsea enter as clear favorites under new management with superior individual quality (Palmer, Joao Pedro coming off a 15-goal season), but this is a West London derby at Craven Cottage on Gameweek 1 where Fulham's confidence and smart summer signings (Shea Charles, Iwobi's creativity) should keep it competitive. A tight, cagey opening-day derby with both sides still gelling tactically points to a narrow away edge or a draw.
Chelsea hold superior squad quality and attacking talent under high-profile new manager Xabi Alonso, making them slight favourites in the derby despite Fulham's home edge and recent 2-1 win over them. Both sides start new eras with unproven PL managerial setups, keeping the draw probability honest around league norms while Chelsea's individual quality edges a narrow away win.
Chelsea's superior squad depth featuring Palmer and Joao Pedro gives them the edge, but Alonso's new back-three system is still bedding in and Fulham won this exact fixture 2-1 last January, making a tight contest likely in Arbeloa's first competitive match in charge.
Chelsea's superior attacking quality—Joao Pedro's 7 pre-season goals, Palmer, and record signing Rogers—makes them clear favourites, but their poor opening-day record (D2 L1 in last 3), defensive leaks in pre-season, and Fulham's strong home form (6 wins in last 9 at Craven Cottage) keep this competitive with an elevated draw probability for a new-manager derby.
FulhamChelsea