Crystal Palace
Newcastle| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H40%D29%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–1 | H39%D28%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H38%D27%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–1 | H38%D30%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–1 | H35%D28%A37% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H39%D30%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–1 | H41%D28%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–1 | H35%D30%A35% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H42%D27%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H42%D28%A30% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Two struggling sides with new managers under pressure — Palace (7 pts) and Newcastle (8 pts) are both mid-table, with Palace coming off a 5-0 battering at Brighton plus Thursday Europa League minutes and Newcastle losing three of four with ten conceded. Selhurst Park and Palace's solid home record give the hosts a slight edge, but a tight, nervy low-scoring game with a high draw chance looks most likely.
Crystal Palace's strong recent home form (wins over Lech Poznan and Nottingham Forest with seven goals scored) and Newcastle's leaky away defence, missing Livramento and Burn, give the hosts an edge, though both teams' poor overall league form keeps a draw and an away result firmly in play.
Crystal Palace boast strong home form under Pierre Sage, but Newcastle's attacking transitions make them dangerous in what should be a tightly contested stalemate.
Palace's compact 3-4-2-1 and strong last-six home form at Selhurst gives them a slight edge despite a reshuffled defence, while Newcastle arrive with a heavily rotated side (Hornicek, Miley, Thiaw) and questioned mentality after Jaissle's promise of a 'different' performance, making a low-scoring draw or narrow home win most likely.
Both sides are labouring under new managers (Palace 14th with 7 points, Newcastle 12th with 8) and both defences are leaky (17 and 14 goals conceded in seven), but their attacks are modest (9 and 10 goals scored), leaving a genuinely tight, low-scoring contest; Palace have been strong at Selhurst (7 scored, 1 conceded in their last two home games) and have won the last two meetings, though they are exhausted after a midweek trip to Besiktas while Newcastle are rested and desperate after two heavy defeats. I therefore see home and away as near-balanced with an honest 27% draw probability, and 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline.
Crystal Palace's disciplined tactical setup and strong home form in recent matches balances against Newcastle's mental and tactical adjustments, making a draw the most plausible single outcome, though all three results are closely contested.
Two evenly matched, out-of-form sides separated by one point: Palace have home advantage and won this fixture 2-1 last season, but they were thrashed 5-0 at Brighton last week, are on a three-day turnaround after Thursday's Europa League draw, and miss Strand Larsen, Timber, Tomiyasu and Riad with Henderson doubtful. Newcastle are rested since 17 October but have lost three of four with goals drying up, two 4-1 away defeats, and a makeshift injury-hit XI (reserve keeper Hornicek, no Livramento/Ramsey, doubts over Elanga and Fernandez-Pardo), so a tight, low-margin game with the draw very live looks most likely.
Crystal Palace's strong recent home form and 3-4-2-1 system supporting Mateta, Pino and Sarr give them a slight edge at Selhurst Park, though Newcastle's quality keeps the draw and away win very much in play.
Palace’s strong recent home record and compact 3-4-2-1 give them a slight edge, though their reshuffled defence leaves opportunities for Newcastle. With neither side clearly superior, a tight draw is the likeliest scoreline.
Crystal Palace's strong home form and potential to secure consecutive wins over Newcastle give them a slight edge at Selhurst Park, but Newcastle's quality under new manager Jaissle—who has promised a 'different' performance—keeps this tightly contested. Both teams are likely to be cautious early in the season, making a narrow home win or draw the most probable outcomes.
Both teams sit mid-table with poor recent form, leaky defences (Palace conceded 17 in 7, Newcastle 14) and drying attacks under new managers; Selhurst Park edge is offset by Newcastle's slight points advantage and possession base, making a low-scoring draw the clearest outcome.
Palace's strong home form and settled 3-4-2-1 under Sage, combined with a Newcastle side still searching for identity under Jaissle and leaking inconsistency, make a narrow home win the most likely outcome. The draw still carries an honest share given how tight this fixture has been historically.
Palace are unbeaten in their last five home meetings with Newcastle and face a Magpies side that has conceded four goals in two of their three away fixtures this season. However, Palace's own defensive fragility (17 conceded in 7) and a 5-0 loss at Brighton last time out temper confidence, keeping the draw and away win in play.
Crystal PalaceNewcastle