Aston Villa
Brentford| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–1 | H33%D28%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–1 | H33%D35%A32% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H43%D26%A31% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–1 | H40%D28%A32% | Missed | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D30%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H34%D27%A39% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H43%D29%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H40%D27%A33% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H46%D27%A27% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 0–1 | H32%D27%A41% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–1 | H24%D34%A42% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Brentford arrive unbeaten (2W 3D) and in confident form after thrashing Chelsea, while a summer-weakened Villa sit 16th with one win in five and a leaky defence, and the Bees have won the last three meetings without conceding. Home advantage and Villa's recent win at Spurs keep it close, so a tight, low-scoring game with a high draw chance is the fair read.
Villa Park has been draw-heavy in this fixture and Brentford have drawn five of their last seven away games; both teams are scoring and conceding regularly, making 1-1 the standout scoreline.
Aston Villa's attack remains consistently productive at Villa Park and Unai Emery will expect a response to avoid a third consecutive home defeat, though Brentford's counter-attacking speed poses a serious threat.
Villa's home advantage and prolific attack (3 goals in 4 of last 5) is tempered by a leaky defence and two straight 1-0 defeats to Brentford, while Brentford's low-possession counter threat via Schade keeps it close at Villa Park.
Brentford have won the last three meetings between these sides (both PL fixtures 1-0 last season plus a League Cup penalty win), giving them a strong psychological edge, and Villa have leaked goals throughout the campaign despite scoring regularly (negative goal difference). However, Emery has never lost three home league games in a row, and Villa's new-look 4-4-2 with Manzambi/Buendía supporting Jackson offers genuine attacking threat at Villa Park, so a tight, low-scoring draw feels the most likely single outcome.
Aston Villa's recent struggles at home and their poor record against Brentford in their last two meetings contrast with their attacking potential and Emery's managerial resilience. Brentford's ability to defend deep and counter, combined with Villa's defensive frailties, makes this a finely balanced contest with a slight edge to Villa.
Brentford have won the last three meetings (two 1-0 league wins plus a cup shootout) and Villa arrive on back-to-back home league defeats with a defence leaking goals despite scoring freely; Brentford's counter-attacking threat, led by an in-form Schade, is well suited to punishing that fragility. Villa's attacking output and Emery's home record keep this close, so the draw is very live, but the recent head-to-head and form give the Bees a slight edge.
Brentford have won the last three meetings (two 1-0 league wins last season plus a League Cup penalty shootout) and arrive with Kevin Schade in sharp form; Villa's attack has been prolific (3+ goals in 4 of 5) but their defence leaks enough to keep a negative goal difference, and Emery's side must avoid a third straight home league loss — a rare blot on his record — making a tight, low-margin away win or draw the most probable outcomes.
Villa’s home advantage and midfield quality give them a narrow edge, but defensive instability and consecutive 1-0 league defeats to Brentford temper confidence. Brentford’s counterattacking threat makes a competitive draw the likeliest scoreline.
Brentford have dominated this fixture recently with three consecutive wins (including two 1-0 league victories last season), and Villa's defense has been leaky all season with a negative goal difference. However, Villa are at home where Emery has never lost three successive league matches, and their attacking quality through McGinn, Buendía, and Manzambi should produce goals against a Brentford side that doesn't dominate possession.
Villa at home under Emery historically avoid three straight home league losses and possess enough midfield creativity (McGinn, Buendía) to edge a leaky but high-output attack against Brentford, who have won the last two PL meetings 1-0 yet remain vulnerable away. A narrow home win is the single most likely scoreline amid Villa's recent goal-scoring volume.
Brentford are unbeaten and flying in 4th with 9 points, having beaten Chelsea 3-0 last time out and won all three meetings against Villa last season (including a 1-0 at Villa Park with 10 men). Villa sit 16th with just 4 points from 5, have lost five home games in 2026, and struggle defensively — making a narrow Brentford win the most probable outcome.
Brentford are unbeaten, 4th, and just thrashed Chelsea 3-0, while Villa sit 16th with poor home form — yet 6 of 9 Villa Park meetings between these sides have ended level and Emery has never lost three straight home league games, making a draw the most competitive single outcome against a Brentford side that has drawn 3 of 5 this season.
Aston VillaBrentford