Arsenal
Chelsea| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H49%D26%A25% | Correct | Exact |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H49%D25%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H52%D26%A22% | Correct | Exact |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H46%D26%A28% | Correct | Exact |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–0 | H46%D28%A26% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Correct | Exact |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H45%D28%A27% | Correct | Exact |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–1 | H48%D27%A25% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H43%D26%A31% | Correct | Exact |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H48%D26%A26% | Correct | Exact |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H45%D25%A30% | Correct | Exact |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–1 | H50%D26%A24% | Correct | Exact |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Arsenal have opened the season with two wins and two clean sheets and remain formidable at the Emirates, particularly from set pieces against a Chelsea side that has already conceded five goals in two games. Chelsea's front line of Palmer, Rogers and the in-form Joao Pedro keeps this competitive, so a narrow home win is likeliest with a real chance of a draw.
Arsenal's two clean-sheet wins and Emirates home edge give them the upper hand, especially with Chelsea's Caicedo a doubt in midfield. Chelsea's in-form front line should score, but their leaky defence makes a home win the likeliest result.
Arsenal's structural stability and set-piece superiority give them the advantage at the Emirates against a dangerous yet defensively vulnerable Chelsea side.
Arsenal bring two clean sheets and strong set-piece pressure at home against a Chelsea side that has won both games but shipped five goals, while Chelsea's in-form Palmer-Joao Pedro-Rogers front three keeps it close and ensures goals at both ends.
Arsenal's home advantage and two consecutive clean sheets to start the season (against Coventry and Aston Villa) point to defensive solidity, while Chelsea's high-scoring but defensively fragile wins (5 goals conceded in 2 games) and Robert Sanchez's set-piece vulnerability give the Gunners a clear edge. Cole Palmer and in-form Joao Pedro keep Chelsea dangerous enough to warrant a meaningful away share, but the Gunners' organized pressing and set-piece threat through Rice and Havertz should tip a tight derby.
Arsenal's organized pressing, central control through Rice and Ødegaard, and defensive solidity (two clean sheets in two matches) give them a slight edge. However, Chelsea's dynamic frontline, led by Palmer and Joao Pedro, poses a significant threat, especially on the counter and from set pieces, making a draw highly plausible.
Arsenal open with two clean-sheet wins and host a Chelsea side that has already conceded five in two games and remains vulnerable defending set pieces — a area Arsenal can exploit. Chelsea's in-form attack (Palmer, Joao Pedro, Rogers) makes an away goal likely and keeps the draw and away win live, but Arsenal's defensive structure and home edge make a narrow home win most probable.
Arsenal's two clean sheets and organized pressing under Rice/Ødegaard contrast with Chelsea's five goals conceded in two wins; home advantage and set-piece vulnerability for Chelsea tilt the balance toward a narrow Arsenal victory.
Arsenal’s home advantage, structured pressing and midfield control give them the edge overall, but Chelsea’s dangerous Palmer–Rogers–Joao Pedro attack makes a draw the likeliest individual scoreline.
Arsenal's home advantage, defensive solidity (two clean sheets in two games), and set-piece threat against a Chelsea side shaky on set pieces give the Gunners the edge. However, Chelsea's potent attacking trio of Palmer, Joao Pedro, and Rogers — combined with both teams sitting on maximum points — suggests an open, competitive London derby where the visitors are likely to find the net.
Arsenal enter with two clean-sheet wins and superior defensive organisation at home, while Chelsea have won both games but conceded five; Arsenal's midfield control and set-piece edge should edge a tight, high-quality derby.
Arsenal's two clean sheets to start the season and strong home advantage give them the edge, but Chelsea's potent attacking trio of Palmer, Rogers, and in-form Joao Pedro (7 goals in 9 games) makes an away goal very likely against a Gunners defence that will face its toughest test yet.
Arsenal are reigning champions with two clean sheets in two games and have won the last three H2H meetings at the Emirates, while Chelsea's league-high 12 goals come with a criminally open defense that has conceded in 18 straight matches — Arsenal's set-piece strength and defensive solidity should edge a high-quality London derby.
ArsenalChelsea