FSV Mainz 05
Bayer Leverkusen| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 1–2 | H31%D25%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 1–2 | H28%D26%A46% | Correct | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 1–2 | H28%D26%A46% | Correct | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 1–2 | H30%D26%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 1–2 | H28%D29%A43% | Correct | Missed |
| Mistral Large 3Mistral | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 1–2 | H29%D27%A44% | Correct | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 1–2 | H30%D30%A40% | Correct | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 1–2 | H28%D25%A47% | Correct | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 1–2 | H28%D27%A45% | Correct | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 1–2 | H27%D24%A49% | Correct | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 1–2 | H27%D24%A49% | Correct | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Leverkusen have scored at least twice in every game this season and arrive on the back of a 2-0 win over Leipzig, but their away form (loss at Elversberg, draw at Augsburg) is shaky, while Fischer's Mainz are unbeaten in four of five yet still winless at the Mewa Arena. Expect an open, high-scoring game with the visitors' superior squad edging it.
Leverkusen's strong recent form and superior head-to-head record give them the edge, while Mainz's home winless run and defensive absences point to an away win. Mainz's attacking output should keep it competitive and relatively high-scoring.
While Mainz are resilient and aggressive at home under Bo Henriksen, Bayer Leverkusen possess superior individual quality and attacking firepower to edge a competitive fixture.
Leverkusen have the higher squad quality and showed control in the 2-0 win over Leipzig, making them slight favourites even away, but Mainz's strong home results and Leverkusen's recent inconsistency (late 2-2 vs Augsburg) suggest a tight game.
Leverkusen are a top-four caliber side who recently beat RB Leipzig 2-0 and possess superior individual quality (Schick, Grimaldo, Garcia), but Mainz have proven they can upset top teams at home (wins over Bayern and Frankfurt) and are characterized by 'consistent inconsistency' — making this a tight, low-scoring contest where a Leverkusen away win is the single most likely outcome but a draw is nearly as plausible.
Mainz 05 have shown recent resilience with wins over top teams, but Bayer Leverkusen's tactical adaptability and home advantage in this fixture tilt the balance slightly in their favor. Both teams are prone to defensive lapses, making a draw a realistic outcome.
Leverkusen arrive with the stronger squad and encouraging signs (a 2-0 win over RB Leipzig) despite their noted 'consistent inconsistency,' making them slight favorites even away from home. Mainz are stubborn at the Mewa Arena and this matchup has produced tight scorelines and draws recently, so the draw gets an honest share, but the Werkself's superior attacking quality tips the balance toward a narrow away win.
Both sides sit on 7 points after four games (5th vs 6th) and seek first back-to-back league wins. Mainz are winless at home this term but smashed four at Gladbach; Leverkusen have kept three straight clean sheets in all competitions and boast six wins in their last eight visits to the Mewa Arena. The visitors' superior H2H record and defensive structure give them a slight edge, though Mainz's returning attackers and home urgency keep the draw probability high.
Leverkusen have the stronger squad and greater attacking quality, although their inconsistency and Mainz's home advantage keep this competitive. Mainz are capable of scoring, but Leverkusen are more likely to convert control into a narrow win.
Leverkusen possess superior squad quality with players like Schick, Grimaldo, and Quansah, and showed their ceiling in a dominant 2-0 win over Leipzig. However, Mainz are a dangerous side with recent big results (wins over Bayern and Frankfurt) and a disciplined 3-5-2 system under Bo Henriksen that can frustrate top teams, making this closer than the gap in quality suggests.
Leverkusen enter as the stronger side with superior squad depth and recent edge in this fixture historically, while Mainz at home remain competitive and capable of frustrating bigger teams; early-season parity and Mainz's organization keep the draw live but Leverkusen most likely to edge a tight contest.
Leverkusen have won 6 of their last 8 away games at Mainz and have scored 2+ goals in all six matches this season, but have failed to win either away Bundesliga game so far (loss at Elversberg, draw at Augsburg). Mainz are defensively vulnerable—conceding 6 goals in their last two league games—yet remain dangerous going forward with Tietz and Becker, making this a likely high-scoring contest where Leverkusen's superior quality and dominant H2H record gives them the edge.
Leverkusen boast superior underlying numbers (57% possession, 88.4% passing, 85 shots to Mainz's 64) and arrive in strong form after beating Leipzig 2-0, while Mainz are missing five players including key attackers Hollerbach and Silas, weakening their ability to compete against a deeper Leverkusen squad.
FSV Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen