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Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — predictions and result

Borussia Dortmund
90-minute result2–0
Hamburger SV
Regular Season - 1Signal Iduna Park

Predictions

14 published
Exact producing versions, predicted scorelines and home/draw/away probabilities. Result and scoreline are separate predictions under the original FA rules.
Model / versionScorelineHome / Draw / AwayOutcomeExact
AnthropicClaude Opus 5Anthropic2–0
H70%D19%A11%
CorrectExact
DeepSeekDeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek2–0
H67%D20%A13%
CorrectExact
GoogleGemini 3.7 FlashGoogle3–1
H69%D19%A12%
CorrectMissed
GoogleGemma 4 31BGoogle2–1
H62%D22%A16%
CorrectMissed
MetaMuse Spark 1.2Meta2–0
H67%D20%A13%
CorrectExact
MinimaxMiniMax M3MiniMax2–1
H63%D21%A16%
CorrectMissed
MistralMistral Large 3Mistral2–1
H55%D25%A20%
CorrectMissed
KimiKimi K3Moonshot2–1
H63%D23%A14%
CorrectMissed
NvidiaNemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA2–1
H58%D26%A16%
CorrectMissed
OpenAIGPT-5.6 SolOpenAI2–0
H68%D20%A12%
CorrectExact
QwenQwen3.7 PlusAlibaba2–0
H68%D19%A13%
CorrectExact
GrokGrok 4.5xAI2–0
H63%D23%A14%
CorrectExact
XiaomiMiMoMiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi2–1
H62%D22%A16%
CorrectMissed
Z.aiGLM-5.2Z.ai2–0
H66%D20%A14%
CorrectExact

Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules

Model notes

Claude Opus 5

Dortmund open at home with a far deeper squad and strong Signal Iduna Park record, while newly-promoted-level HSV have historically struggled there; Kovac's side should control the game even if their defence occasionally leaks. A tight first matchday and HSV's organised low block keep the draw at a respectable share.

DeepSeek V4 Pro

Dortmund's strong Signal Iduna Park record, best-in-league defence last season and deeper new-look attack should overwhelm an HSV side weakened by summer exits and missing key defensive options, making a home win with a clean sheet the most likely outcome.

Gemini 3.7 Flash

Borussia Dortmund hold a major quality and depth advantage at Signal Iduna Park, which should allow their potent attack to comfortably see off Hamburger SV on the opening matchday.

Gemma 4 31B

Borussia Dortmund are strong favorites playing at home for the season opener, though Hamburger SV's return to the top flight often brings high energy. Dortmund's superior squad depth and home advantage make them likely winners, but HSV's attacking potential suggests a competitive scoreline.

Muse Spark 1.2

Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park with superior squad depth and continuity under Kovac are clear favourites against newly-promoted HSV, but HSV's reinforced attack (Vieira, Königsdörffer) and Dortmund's Supercup defensive vulnerability suggest a controlled home win rather than a rout.

MiniMax M3

Borussia Dortmund open the season at the Westfalenstadion as clear favorites despite a 2-1 Supercup loss to Bayern, with Guirassy, Bellingham, and a strong squad at home against promoted Hamburger SV, who historically struggle on their return to the top flight; HSV's attacking threat (Downs, Königsdörffer) suggests they can grab a consolation in a 2-1 home win.

Mistral Large 3

Borussia Dortmund hold a historical advantage over Hamburger SV and are playing at home, with a strong predicted lineup and tactical setup. However, Hamburger SV are a spirited underdog capable of causing upsets, making a draw a realistic possibility.

Kimi K3

Dortmund open the season at the Westfalenstadion with a clearly deeper squad (Kobel, Schlotterbeck, Nmecha, Guirassy) and won last season's corresponding home fixture 3-2; HSV are competitive and can score, but their second-season squad remains a tier below, making a home win most likely with the draw kept honest given opening-day rust after Dortmund's Supercup defeat.

Nemotron 3 Ultra

Dortmund open the season at home with a stronger squad and historical dominance (48-41 in 118 meetings), but HSV arrive as motivated newly-promoted underdogs with attacking talent like Vieira and Königsdörffer; Dortmund's Supercup loss to Bayern suggests they may concede, making a narrow home win most likely.

GPT-5.6 Sol

Dortmund’s superior squad quality and home advantage make them clear favorites, although opening-day uncertainty keeps the draw probability meaningful. Hamburg may struggle to create enough chances against Dortmund’s experienced defense.

Qwen3.7 Plus

Dortmund enter as heavy favorites at home against newly-promoted HSV, with a significantly stronger squad featuring Guirassy and Bellingham, plus a strong historical head-to-head record (48 wins vs 41). Despite coming off a Supercup loss to Bayern, the quality gap and home advantage should see Kovac's side control the match, though Matchday 1 rust may keep the scoreline modest.

Grok 4.5

Dortmund enter as clear favorites with a fortress home record, the league's best defense last season, and superior squad depth under Kovac, while HSV as mid-table survivors struggle historically and away against top sides. Guirassy and the midfield axis should control proceedings for a controlled home win.

MiMo v2.5-Pro

Dortmund are strong home favorites with a fortress record at Signal Iduna Park (13W from 17 last season) and elite defensive numbers, though the loss of HSV's key loanees Vuskovic and Vieira weakens the visitors significantly; HSV showed enough in last season's survival and their Pokal win to suggest they can nick a goal, making 2-1 the likeliest scoreline.

GLM-5.2

Dortmund's outstanding home record (W13 D2 L2 last season) and superior squad depth face an HSV side weakened by the loss of key loanees Vuskovic and Vieira, with an unfinished roster and pre-season injuries. BVB will be motivated after their Supercup loss and should control this match comfortably at Signal Iduna Park.

Recorded pre-match odds
Decimal odds · 90 minPinnacle
HomeBorussia Dortmund
1.32
DrawLevel at 90′
5.85
AwayHamburger SV
8.99