1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV| Model / version | Scoreline | Home / Draw / Away | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5Anthropic | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek | 2–1 | H50%D25%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Gemini 3.7 FlashGoogle | 2–1 | H56%D24%A20% | Missed | Missed |
| Muse Spark 1.2Meta | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| MiniMax M3MiniMax | 2–1 | H56%D23%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Kimi K3Moonshot | 2–1 | H50%D25%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| Nemotron 3 UltraNVIDIA | 2–1 | H50%D25%A25% | Missed | Missed |
| GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI | 2–1 | H55%D24%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba | 2–1 | H55%D24%A21% | Missed | Missed |
| Grok 4.5xAI | 2–1 | H52%D25%A23% | Missed | Missed |
| MiMo v2.5-ProXiaomi | 2–1 | H48%D24%A28% | Missed | Missed |
| GLM-5.2Z.ai | 2–0 | H60%D22%A18% | Missed | Missed |
Outcome uses the highest probability. Exact uses the scoreline. Scoring rules
Hoffenheim were comfortably the stronger side last season (top-six, European-chasing) and hold a solid home record at the PreZero Arena, while Hamburg have been a mid-to-lower table side who struggle for consistency away from the Volksparkstadion. Expect an open game with goals at both ends, hence a narrow home win as the most likely outcome, with the draw still given fair weight.
Hoffenheim's home advantage, strong recent head-to-head record and HSV's leaky away defence point to a home win, though both sides' defensive issues should give Hamburg chances.
Hoffenheim boast superior squad depth and quality over Hamburger SV, with home advantage at the PreZero Arena likely providing the decisive edge.
Hoffenheim finished 2025/26 pushing for Champions League and beat HSV 2-1 away in April, showing a quality edge that is amplified at home early in 2026/27, though HSV's ability to make it an open, high-event game keeps draw and away upset live.
Hoffenheim are established Bundesliga top-half side with a strong home record, while Hamburger SV are relative newcomers (promoted for 2025/26) and likely still fighting relegation. The previous H2H saw Hoffenheim win 2-1 at Hamburg in 2025/26, suggesting a similar tight home win is the most likely outcome.
Both sides have struggled early in 2026/27 (3 pts each), but Hoffenheim dominate this matchup — winning 4-1 at home and 2-1 away last season, with Ilzer 2-for-2 against Polzin — and they carry far more attacking threat (Hlozek/Lemperle) than an HSV side that scored its first league goals only in the 2-1 win over Köln while conceding 13 in four games. Hoffenheim's own leaky defense (3+ conceded in four of their last five, Hajdari/Bernardo doubts) keeps the draw and an HSV upset live, so a narrow, high-event home win is the modal outcome.
Hoffenheim have won both H2H meetings last season (4-1 at home) and HSV have lost both away games 7-0 aggregate this term; however, both defences are leaky (Hoffenheim conceding 3+ in 4 of 5, HSV 13 in 4), so a high-scoring home win is most likely.
Hoffenheim appear the stronger side and have home advantage, while their 2-1 away win over HSV late last season reinforces the matchup edge. HSV should still pose enough attacking threat to keep this competitive.
Hoffenheim finished 5th with 61 points last season and are pushing for Champions League qualification under Ilzer, while HSV barely survived in 13th (38 points) and have been weakened by the departure of key loanees Vuskovic and Vieira. Hoffenheim won the reverse fixture 2-1 last season and should be strong favorites at the PreZero Arena against a second-season promoted side with an unfinished squad and pre-season injury concerns.
Hoffenheim hold a clear edge at home with superior squad quality and H2H dominance despite both sides' leaky defenses and identical 3-point starts; HSV's catastrophic away record (0-7 aggregate) and scoring woes make a home win the most probable outcome in an open, high-event match.
Hoffenheim's stronger attacking firepower and solid home record (beat Stuttgart 2-1 last home game) should overcome a Hamburg side that has conceded 13 goals in 4 matches and lost both away fixtures heavily (0-3, 0-5). Hamburg's recent win over Köln offers some hope, but their missing Grønbæk and woeful away form tip the balance decisively toward the hosts.
Hoffenheim are at home where they've scored in every match this season, while HSV have scored 0 goals in 2 away games (0-2 at Dortmund, 0-5 at Freiburg) and hold the league's worst defensive record at 13 conceded in 4 matches. Hoffenheim's own defensive frailties keep the door slightly open, but HSV's total attacking impotence on the road makes a home win the most likely outcome.
1899 HoffenheimHamburger SV